Recently a new project has been launched under the Transatlantic Leadership Network, titled “Russian Intentions and Actions in the Black Sea.” This initiative takes a deep dive into Russia’s strategic goals in the Black Sea region, the tools it uses to project influence, and what actions it may pursue during and after the war in Ukraine. PMCG-affiliated researchers – Giorgi Khistovani, Gocha Kardava, and Irakli Sirbiladze – contributed to one of the project’s papers:“The Black Sea’s Evolving Geopolitical and Economic Role for Russia Post-Ukraine Invasion.” This insightful analysis examines: How Russia’s geopolitical and economic priorities in the Black Sea have shifted, The changing trade dynamics in the region, And how Moscow’s influence is weakening under the pressure of sanctions and the ongoing war -leading to increased reliance on regional actors like Turkey and Azerbaijan.

The Country Energy Outlook series provides a comprehensive analysis of energy sectors across key countries, examining their structure, performance, and transition pathways within the evolving global energy landscape. The series aims to deliver concise, data-driven insights into how different economies balance energy security, economic growth, and decarbonization. The first paper in this series focuses on Kazakhstan – Central Asia’s leading energy producer and a major global supplier of oil, gas, coal, and uranium. It explores the country’s energy sector from its historical foundations to its current dynamics and future transformation. While fossil fuels remain central to Kazakhstan’s economy, the report highlights ongoing efforts to diversify the energy mix through natural gas expansion, renewable energy development, and potential nuclear capacity, all within the context of its 2060 carbon neutrality goal. It also assesses the structural and geopolitical challenges that will influence the country’s transition trajectory. Main Findings Fossil fuel dominance creates both strength and risk: Coal accounts for around 70% of electricity generation, while oil and gas exports drive economic performance but expose Kazakhstan to global decarbonization pressures. Geopolitical and export dependencies are significant: Reliance on Russian transit routes remains a key vulnerability, prompting efforts to diversify export corridors toward Europe and Asia. Renewable energy expansion remains limited: Despite growth, renewables contributed only 5.9% of electricity generation in 2023, constrained by grid capacity and policy inconsistencies. Structural reforms are critical for transition: Addressing subsidies, regulatory uncertainty, and aging infrastructure is essential to attract investment and meet climate targets.

Shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, maritime trade flows in the Black Sea were significantly reshaped. As the war continued, developments affecting the trade in the Black Sea changed, underscoring the importance of thoroughly analyzing how the region has adapted to such disruptions. This publication builds upon the previous edition, which was released shortly after the outbreak of the war. Now, three years later, our focus shifts to examining how trade dynamics, particularly maritime trade in the Black Sea region, have evolved during this period. Key insights include: Upon the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War, port calls in Ukraine and Russia dropped sharply, while other Black Sea countries briefly benefited from redirected trade flows. By late 2023, port calls in Ukraine had gradually recovered, supported by new shipping routes through Romania and Bulgaria. However, serious threats to commercial shipping remained. Ukraine’s maritime exports and imports fell sharply in 2022, with a slow recovery in imports in 2023. In Russia, maritime imports declined, while exports initially increased in 2022, possibly due to sanctions being ineffective. However, as the sanctions intensified, exports also fell significantly the following year.