Issue 2: Economic Growth Forecasts in Ukraine: 2020 and 2021
25-Nov-2020
“The Great Lockdown”, referring to the period in which COVID-19 containment measures were put in place worldwide, has had a significant toll on the global economy. In the specific case of Ukraine, even though the country entered the crisis in better macroeconomic condition than in previous global crisis in 2008, its economy is still expected to be hit hard. In this issue, we provide an overview of the impacts of the ongoing pandemic on the Ukrainian economy that are already visible and try to supply an economic forecast for the country for the remainder of 2020 and for 2021, looking at the performance of each economic sector in the process.
Georgian Economic Climate (Q4, 2020)
18-Nov-2020
In the fourth quarter of 2020, Georgian economic climate did not change significantly, compared to the previous quarter. In this period, Georgian economists assessed Georgia’s present economic situation negatively. The assessment of present economic situation in this quarter slightly improved compared to the third quarter of 2020, but worsened compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. In the fourth quarter of 2020, Georgia’s economic situation for the next six months was also assessed negatively by Georgian economists. Furthermore, expectations for the next six months deteriorated slightly compared to both the third quarter of 2020 and the fourth quarter of 2020.
Issue 124: Overview of COVID-19 in Eastern Europe and Central Asia Including Case Studies of Georgia, Moldova and Serbia
22-Oct-2020
The COVID-19 pandemic, and the ensuing economic shock, has prompted governments all around the globe to act swiftly and decisively to mitigate the health and economic impacts of the crisis. Each country has responded in its own way, and it is useful to look at these different responses to identify good practices. In this issue, we look broadly at countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, and present three case studies of Georgia, Moldova, and Serbia respectively, including an analysis of the fiscal measures these countries have taken and an overview of the impacts of the pandemic.
Monthly Tourism Update (September, 2020)
21-Oct-2020
The number of international travelers declined by 94.2% in September compared to the same period of 2019, while the number of inter- national visitors fell by 93.6% and the number of international tourists fell by 92.2%. Georgia experienced a fall of more than 90% in the number of foreign arrivals every month since April, compared to the corresponding period of 2019;
In the first three quarters of 2020, revenues from international travel amounted to US$499 mln, which is 81% lower than for the same period of 2019;
The price changes in Adjara, Guria, and Samtskhe-Javakheti are the most representative of tourism’s decline. In September 2020, the year over year Hotel Price Index decreased by 39.2% in Guria, 33.4% in Adjara, and 24.3% in Samtskhe-Javakheti;
Looking at countries that have reopened tourism quickly with no restrictions, some have managed to recover a sizable portion of their arrivals, such as Albania, while others, like North Macedonia and Serbia, have not been so successful. Indeed, the decrease in the number of arrivals to the latter two countries has been comparable to that in Georgia, which has maintained significant travel restrictions.
Hotel Price Index (September, 2020)
21-Oct-2020
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 124 GEL per night in September 2020, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 221 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 70 GEL per night. The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in September 2020 was 335 GEL per night. In Samtskhe-Javakheti, the average price was 440 GEL, followed by Guria - 433 GEL, Tbilisi - 430 GEL and Kakheti – 345 GEL.
