Issue 21: Ukraine’s Monetary Stability: Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy
05-Dec-2023
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, Ukraine has adopted various measures and policies to support business and economic activities in the country. Alongside fiscal policies as well as business and labor support programs, monetary regulations have played a crucial role in ensuring the resilience of its wartime economy.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has been efficiently responding to monetary developments, implementing effective actions to maintain the country’s monetary stability. This bulletin provides an overview of some of the most recent monetary and exchange rate policies adopted in Ukraine and analyzes their effectiveness by looking at three key monetary stability indicators: exchange rate, inflation, and reserves.
UKRAINIAN PUBLICATION
Hazelnut Production Sector in Georgia
30-Nov-2023
Georgia is a significant contributor to the global hazelnut industry, ranking among the world’s leading countries in both shelled and in-shell hazelnut exports.
Nearly all (97.9%) Georgian hazelnuts are produced in the following five regions: Samegrelo (42.2%); Guria (20.7%); Kakheti (12.9%); Adjara (12.0%); and Imereti (10.5%). Among these regions, the price of hazelnuts is highest in Kakheti, followed by Samegrelo and Imereti.
Most of the hazelnuts produced in Georgia are exported. The leading importer countries of Georgian hazelnuts are Italy and Germany.
Employment Tracker (November, 2023)
27-Nov-2023
In October 2023, the number of persons receiving a monthly salary increased by 5.1% compared to the corresponding period of 2022.
In October 2023, the share of persons receiving a monthly salary up to 600 GEL amounted to 17.9%, which was 4.6 percentage points less than the corresponding period of 2022.
In October 2023, the share of persons receiving a monthly salary of 9,600 GEL and more amounted to 1.9%, which was 0.3 percentage points more than the corresponding period of 2022.
In 2023, from May to October, the total number of vacancies published on jobs.ge amounted to 45,954, which was 5.1% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2022.
Issue 146: Emigration and the Effect of Remittances on the Georgian Economy (2013-2022)
20-Nov-2023
Georgia is considered a country of emigration. Since the mid-1990s, emigration from the country has been largely defined as labor migration, with Georgian citizens seeking better prospects abroad to ease persistent socio-economic challenges at home, including high unemployment, widespread poverty, and low wages.
A distinctive feature of this trend is that a significant proportion of Georgian labor emigrants choose to reside and work illegally in their host countries. Meanwhile, for Georgians who opt to emigrate, their primary motivation for doing so is to earn enough to support their families back in Georgia to whom they send remittances to alleviate economic hardships.
This bulletin discusses Georgia’s emigration trends and the role of remittances in the Georgian economy at macro and micro levels over the last decade.
Monthly Tourism Update (October, 2023)
14-Nov-2023
In Q3 of 2023, the number of international visits reached 2.3 million visits, recording a 21% YoY increase, however, only reaching 83% of visits in Q3 of 2019.
Among the top countries of origin for international visits, in the following periods, visits from Israel are expected to decline due to geopolitical issues. However, visits from China are set to increase gradually with the new visa-free policy. Additionally, India’s tourism market remains promising, despite some border crossing challenges for visitors.
In Q3 of 2023, income from international travel reached USD 1.4 billion, which significantly surpasses the pre-pandemic number by 28%, however, showing an incremental 5% rise compared to Q3 of 2022.
In October 2023, compared to October 2022, the Hotel Price Index (HPI) in Georgia decreased by 11.1%, with the yearly HPI at its lowest under the “guesthouses” category (-18.7%). Meanwhile, compared to September 2023, the HPI in October 2023 dropped by 11.3%.
Hotel Price Index (October, 2023)
14-Nov-2023
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 152 GEL per night in October 2023, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 237 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 118 GEL per night.
The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in October 2023 was 411 GEL per night. In Tbilisi, the average price was 562 GEL, followed by Guria – 530 GEL, Kakheti – 517 GEL, and Adjara – 319 GEL.
Issue 5: Macro Overview
09-Nov-2023
Following rapid double-digit growth in 2021 and 2022, Georgia's economy in this year is continuing on an upward trajectory, albeit at a slower pace compared to the previous two years.
In the first 9 months of 2023, there were several factors that have contributed to growth slowing down. Moreover, there were several factors that presented challenges and opportunities in the economy - examined within the report in detail.
Issue 5 of the Macro Overview thoroughly explores different aspects of the economy in Georgia and beyond, including:
Economic Growth;
Economic and Business Climate;
Key Macroeconomic Indicators;
Labor Market;
External Sector;
Global Economic Trends.
Employment Tracker (October, 2023)
25-Oct-2023
In September 2023, the number of persons receiving a monthly salary increased by 3.9% compared to the corresponding period of 2022.
In September 2023, the share of persons receiving a monthly salary up to 600 GEL amounted to 18.6%, which was 4.3 percentage points less than the corresponding period of 2022.
In September 2023, the share of persons receiving a monthly salary of 9,600 GEL and more amounted to 1.9%, which was 0.3 percentage points more than the corresponding period of 2022.
In 2023, from April to September, the total number of vacancies published on jobs.ge amounted to 44,802, which was 5.4% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2022.
Monthly Tourism Update (September, 2023)
19-Oct-2023
In the first half of 2023, the number of domestic visits amounted to 9.2 million, which is 15% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2022. The upturn in domestic visits this year, following a year-on-year decline in the previous year, was especially pronounced in the Q2 of 2023, where the number of visits rose by 25% compared to the Q2 of 2022.
The total expenditure of domestic visitors reached GEL 1.4 billion in the first half of 2023, which is 14% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2022. By categories, in the first half of 2023, compared to the first half of 2022, the expenditure of domestic visitors on shopping (by 17%) and food and drinks (25%) increased significantly.
In September 2023, compared to September 2022, the Hotel Price Index (HPI) in Georgia decreased by 10.0%, with the yearly HPI at its lowest under the “guesthouses” category (-14.3%). Meanwhile, compared to August 2023, the HPI in September 2023 dropped by 6.2%.
Hotel Price Index (September, 2023)
19-Oct-2023
In Georgia, the average cost of a room1 in a 3-star hotel was 168 GEL per night in September 2023, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 268 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 124 GEL per night.
The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in September 2023 was 495 GEL per night. In Guria, the average price was 780 GEL, followed by Tbilisi – 623 GEL, Kakheti – 514 GEL, and Adjara – 460 GEL.
BAG Index (Q3, 2023)
16-Oct-2023
The Business Association of Georgia (BAG) Index is a joint product of the Business Association of Georgia, PMC Research, and the ifo Institute for Economic Research. The BAG Index summarizes the BAG Business Climate, BAG Employment Barometer, and BAG Investment Environment, which are calculated according to the assessments of the top managers of BAG member businesses and companies in their corporate group. In Q3 of 2023, additional questions were integrated into the questionnaire to assess the investment environment.
For the previous reports of the BAG Index, please visit the following link: https://bag.ge/ge/bag-index
Georgian Economic Climate (Q3, 2023)
06-Oct-2023
In this bulletin, which is based on the ifo Institute’s methodology, we discuss Georgia’s economic climate, informed by the assessments of various Georgian economists.
The main findings of the survey of Georgian economists conducted in the third quarter of 2023 are:
Georgian economists have a positive assessment of Georgia’s present economic situation.
Though their predictions for Georgia’s economic situation for the next six months are negative.
93% of the surveyed economists think that a labor shortage currently represents a high or very high threat to the Georgian economy.
Almost 78% of the surveyed economists named a high emigration rate as a high or very high threat.
With Turkish Lira hitting a record low, 78% of the surveyed economists think that the decreasing competitiveness of domestic products against cheaper imports from Turkey will have at least a high impact on the Georgian economy.
Employment Tracker (September, 2023)
26-Sep-2023
In August 2023, the number of persons receiving a monthly salary increased by 4.0% compared to the corresponding period of 2022.
In August 2023, the share of persons receiving a monthly salary up to 600 GEL amounted to 19.1%, which was 4.1 percentage points less than the corresponding period of 2022.
In August 2023, the share of persons receiving a monthly salary of 9,600 GEL and more amounted to 2.1%, which was 0.4 percentage points more than the corresponding period of 2022.
In 2023, from March to August, the total number of vacancies published on jobs.ge amounted to 44,065, which was 10.2% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2022.
Issue 145: Household Income and Income Inequality in Georgia (2013-2022)
19-Sep-2023
This bulletin provides a comprehensive understanding of household income distribution in Georgia. It presents an analysis of income inequality beyond the traditional Gini coefficient by examining additional dimensions of income distribution. More precisely, the bulletin compares the income of different segments of society, household income in rural and urban areas, and between regions.
Monthly Tourism Update (August, 2023)
14-Sep-2023
Since the beginning of 2023, the tourism sector in Georgia has been showing signs of significant recovery. Therefore, with this background, it is interesting to analyze the latest hotel price dynamics in Georgia.
Since the beginning of 2023, the year-on-year (YoY) Hotel Price Index (HPI) in Georgia has experienced notable fluctuations, with a significant decline in the summer months. That drop was mainly attributed to the YoY price decrease for guesthouses.
To provide a better understanding of the latest price changes of hotels, the regional analysis is crucial. In the summer months of 2023, the YoY HPI in Adjara was positive and significant for all categories of hotels (16%) in June, followed by a decline in July (-2.8%) and August (-0.2%). This could partially be attributed to the relatively low demand in seaside locations, in some instances due to visitors’ sea safety concerns.
Hotel Price Index (August, 2023)
14-Sep-2023
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 181 GEL per night in August 2023, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 278 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 130 GEL per night.
The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in August 2023 was 542 GEL per night. In Guria, the average price was 1055 GEL, followed by Adjara – 515 GEL, Tbilisi – 515 GEL, and Kakheti – 837 GEL.
Employment Tracker (August, 2023)
30-Aug-2023
In July 2023, the number of persons receiving a monthly salary increased by 4.7% compared to the corresponding period of 2022.
In July 2023, the share of persons receiving a monthly salary up to 600 GEL amounted to 17.1%, which was 4.0 percentage points less than the corresponding period of 2022.
In 2023, from February to July, the total number of vacancies published on jobs.ge amounted to 42,900, which was 12.8% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2022.
In 2023, from February to July, a total of 7,866 vacancies were published in the field of finance, statistics, which was 43.1% higher than the corresponding period of 2022 and 99.0% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2021.
Hotel Price Index (July, 2023)
17-Aug-2023
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 174 GEL per night in July 2023, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 267 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 132 GEL per night.
The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in July 2023 was 498 GEL per night. In Guria, the average price was 894 GEL, followed by Adjara – 550 GEL, Tbilisi – 505 GEL, and Kakheti – 466 GEL.
Monthly Tourism Update (July, 2023)
17-Aug-2023
In the first half of 2023, the number of international visits to Georgia reached 2.5 million visits, which is 21.7% lower than in the first half of 2019 (referred to as the corresponding pre-pandemic figure). This relatively slow recovery could be attributed to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War and related disruptions to Georgia’s tourism sector.
From a regional perspective, the number of international visits originating from Europe in the first half of 2023 was well below the pre-pandemic number (-23.3%), while for all other regions, the number of visits matched or exceeded the pre-pandemic figure.
Despite only a partial recovery in the number of international visitors in the first half of 2023 against the corresponding period of 2019, income from international travel reached USD 1.8 billion, representing a 24% increase compared to the first half of 2019.
According to the National Bank of Georgia, as of 30 June 2023, 38.4% of Russian citizens, 34.9% of Belarusian citizens, and 28.0% of Ukrainian citizens residing in Georgia were estimated to have been living in the country for at least one year or were intending to stay for more than one year.
Considering these estimates, income from Russian travelers was at its highest in the first half of 2023 when it amounted to USD 482.1 million (equating to 26.7% of total income from international travel), which is 9.4% higher compared to the same period of 2019.
Issue 4: Macro Overview
10-Aug-2023
Following rapid double-digit growth in 2021 and 2022, Georgia's economy in this year is continuing on an upward trajectory, albeit at a slower pace compared to the previous two years.
In the first half of 2023, there were several positive developments in the Georgian economy, even of these have all come with their own challenges and associated risks – examined within the report in detail.
Issue 4 of the Macro Overview thoroughly explores different aspects of the economy in Georgia and beyond, including:
Economic Growth;
Economic and Business Climate;
Key Macroeconomic Indicators;
Labor Market;
External Sector;
Global Economic Trends.
Employment Tracker (July, 2023)
25-Jul-2023
In June 2023, the number of persons receiving a monthly salary increased by 4.7% compared to the corresponding period of 2022.
In June 2023, the share of persons receiving a monthly salary of 2,400 GEL and more amounted to 22.6%, which was 5.3 percentage points more compared to the corresponding period of 2022.
In 2023, from January to June, the total number of vacancies published on jobs.ge amounted to 42,075, which was 15.0% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2022.
In 2023, from January to June, a total of 7,799 vacancies were published in the field of finance and statistics, which was 46.4% higher than the corresponding period of 2022.
Hotel Price Index (June, 2023)
19-Jul-2023
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 186 GEL per night in June 2023, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 262 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 133 GEL per night.
The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in June 2023 was 485 GEL per night. In Guria, the average price was 646 GEL, followed by Kakheti – 556 GEL, Adjara – 516 GEL, and Tbilisi – 512 GEL.
Monthly Tourism Update (June, 2023)
19-Jul-2023
In 2022, the recovery level of international tourist arrivals to Georgia (72%) was higher compared to the averages of the world (63%), and Central/Eastern Europe (59%), yet lower than that of Europe as a whole (80%). The rate of recovery for Georgia accelerated in Q1 of 2023, reaching 96%, above the averages of the world (80%), Europe as a whole (90%), and Central/Eastern Europe (59%).
However, among selected comparable countries in which tourism makes a large contribution to the national economy, Georgia’s performance was not so outstanding in 2022. Specifically, high levels of recovery in the number of international tourists were evident in all such nations, with Albania even exceeding its pre-pandemic figure, followed by Greece and Croatia showing a strong rebound, while Georgia performed the worst among these four countries.
In a regional context, Turkey and Armenia showed better performance regarding the recovery of international tourist arrivals than Georgia both in 2022 and in Q1 of 2023.
Issue 20: Ukraine: Reconstructing International Trade
04-Jul-2023
In this bulletin, we overview the infrastructural losses Ukraine has suffered from the war so far, the plan for rebuilding the country’s trade infrastructure, the dynamics of Ukraine’s international trade, the facilitation of exports, and the strengthening of the country’s economic resilience with the assistance of external actors.
Georgian Economic Climate (Q2, 2023)
27-Jun-2023
The main findings of the survey of Georgian economists conducted in the second quarter of 2023 are:
Georgian economists have a positive assessment of Georgia’s present economic situation.
Though their predictions for Georgia’s economic situation for the next six months are negative.
63% of the surveyed economists think that Russia’s war on Ukraine as well as labor market problems like skills mismatch and labor shortage (lack of qualified personnel) currently represent a high or very high threat to the Georgian economy.
More than one year since Russia launched its war on Ukraine, nearly half (47%) of the surveyed economists claimed they are uncertain about how to assess the overall impact of the war on the Georgian economy.
Almost 90% of the economists agree with the decision of National Bank of Georgia (announced on 10 May, 2023) to loosen its monetary policy and decrease the policy rate by 0.5 percentage points from 11% to 10.5%.
Employment Tracker (June, 2023)
22-Jun-2023
In May 2023, the number of persons receiving a monthly salary increased by 7.0% compared to the corresponding period of 2022.
In May 2023, the share of persons receiving a monthly salary of 2,400 GEL and more amounted to 21.3%, which was 4.7 percentage points more compared to the corresponding period of 2022.
From December 2022 to May 2023, the total number of vacancies published on jobs.ge amounted to 39,630, which was 17.6% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2021- 2022.
From December 2022 to May 2023, a total of 10,495 vacancies were published in sales, procurement, which was 11.2% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2021-2022.
BAG Index (Q2, 2023)
20-Jun-2023
The Business Association of Georgia (BAG) Index is a joint product of the Business Association of Georgia, PMC Research and the ifo Institute for Economic Research. The BAG Index summarizes the BAG Business Climate, BAG Employment Barometer and BAG Investment Environment, which are calculated according to the assessments of the top managers of BAG member businesses and companies in their corporate group. In Q2 of 2023, additional questions were integrated into the questionnaire to assess the effect of the removal of some industries from the list of sectors with specific operating conditions on businesses. BAG and PMC Research publish the BAG Index on a quarterly basis from Q4 2019.
For the previous reports of the BAG Index, please, visit the following link: https://bag.ge/ge/bag-index
Hotel Price Index (May, 2023)
12-Jun-2023
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 166 GEL per night in May 2023, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 270 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 124 GEL per night.
The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in May 2023 was 409 GEL per night. In Guria, the average price was 584 GEL, followed by Tbilisi – 515 GEL, Kakheti – 354 GEL, and Adjara – 369 GEL.
Monthly Tourism Update (May, 2023)
12-Jun-2023
In Q1 of 2023, 1.05 million passengers were transported by airline companies in Georgia, which is 3.3% higher compared to the corresponding pre-pandemic (Q1 of 2019) figure.
Despite significant YoY growth, the number of passengers traveling to and from Tbilisi airport did not fully recover to pre-pandemic levels (-11% compared to Q1 of 2019), while the number of passengers traveling through Kutaisi and Batumi airports exceeded pre-pandemic numbers significantly.
Throughout the winter season of 2022-2023, regular flights to and from Georgian airports were provided by 41 airlines on 61 routes. The average number of flights per week over this period was 390, which is 6% lower compared to the scheduled weekly flights for the winter season of 2018-2019.
In the summer season of 2023, the number of airlines is expected to rise to 43, while the number of routes is expected to increase to 88. The average number of weekly flights will reach 555, which is 42.3% higher compared to the previous season, and 5.9% lower compared to the number of scheduled flights in the summer season of 2019.
Inflation and Monetary Policy in Black Sea Countries
08-Jun-2023
Since mid-2020, when stringent restrictions were imposed to combat the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation has been running at multi-decade highs in many countries across the globe. In 2022 in particular, inflationary pressures from pandemic-related disruptions were exacerbated by the Russo-Ukrainian War and spiking food and energy prices. In response, central banks implemented different monetary policy approaches in an attempt to stabilize the situation. Against this background, recent inflationary trends and monetary policy approaches adopted by economically diverse Black Sea countries are analyzed and compared in this issue of Black Sea bulletin.
Employment Tracker (May, 2023)
30-May-2023
In April 2023, the number of persons receiving a monthly salary increased by 3.7% compared to the corresponding period of 2022.
In April 2023, the share of persons receiving a monthly salary of 2,400 GEL and more amounted to 21.8%, which was 5.7 percentage points more compared to the corresponding period of 2022.
From November 2022 to April 2023, the total number of vacancies published on jobs.ge amounted to 38,330, which was 18.7% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2021- 2022.
Issue 144: Georgia - Labor Market Overview
18-May-2023
Notwithstanding the recent positive tendencies, considerable challenges persist in the Georgian labor market. In this bulletin, we address several of these pressing concerns and provide a comprehensive overview of the labor market including:
Labor market key indicators
The Beveridge curve analysis
Employment by economic sectors and employed foreign nationals
Salaries of paid employees
Vacancies published on Jobs.ge
Monthly Tourism Update (April, 2023)
16-May-2023
In Q1 of 2023, the number of international visits to Georgia reached a total of 1.1 million, which amounts to 79.9% of the corresponding quarter of 2019 (i.e. the pre-pandemic level).
In Q1 of 2023, Russia was the biggest source country of visitors to Georgia, amounting to 256,787 visits (exceeding the pre-pandemic level by 1.1%).
In Q1 of 2023 the income from international travel reached USD 795.4 million, which is 38% higher compared to the pre-pandemic number.
In terms of nationality, the income from Russian travelers was the highest in Q1 of 2023 and amounted to USD 266.4 million - 29% higher than in Q1 of 2019.
Notably, according to the National Bank of Georgia, as of 31 March 2023, 35.5% of Russian citizens, 23.7% of Ukrainian citizens, and 44% of Belarusian citizens residing in Georgia were estimated to have been living in the country for one year or intending to stay for more than one year, and their expenditure is not included in the calculations of income from travel.
Hotel Price Index (April, 2023)
16-May-2023
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 157 GEL per night in April 2023, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 247 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 115 GEL per night.
The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in April 2023 was 373 GEL per night. In Kakheti, the average price was 548 GEL, followed by Tbilisi – 452, Samtskhe-Javakheti – 354, and Guria – 328.
Honey Production Sector in Georgia
04-May-2023
The global demand for honey is increasing, driven by consumers' growing preference for natural and organic sweeteners over sugar and other health-damaging artificial substitutes and the global honey market is expected to grow from $8.53 billion in 2022 to $12.69 billion by 2029, at a CAGR of 5.83%.
Considering that Georgia is known as the land of the oldest honey discovered, and has suitable natural conditions and biodiversity for high-quality honey production, the development potential for the honey production sector in Georgia is high.
Employment Tracker (April, 2023)
25-Apr-2023
In March 2023, the number of persons receiving a monthly salary increased by 3.9% compared to the corresponding period of 2022 and by 8.3% compared to the corresponding period of 2021.
From October 2022 to March 2023, the total number of vacancies published on jobs.ge amounted to 38,836, which was 20.0% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2021- 2022.
In March 2023, compared to February 2023, the total number of vacancies published on jobs.ge increased by 19.4%.
From October 2022 to March 2023, a total of 7,047 vacancies were published in the field of finance, statistics, which was 42.5% higher than the corresponding period of 2021-2022 and 179.9% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2020-2021.
Monthly Tourism Update (March, 2023)
18-Apr-2023
In 2022, the number of domestic visits amounted to 16.3 million visits, which is 3.6% lower compared to 2021, and 14.6% higher compared to the pre-pandemic number, indicating continuing increased demand for tourist activities from domestic visitors, albeit at a decelerating rate.
In 2022, the average nights spent per visit fully returned to the pre-pandemic number, showing the reversal of the behavior of domestic visitors after the growth in the length of stay in 2020 and 2021.
The expenditure of domestic visitors reached GEL 3 billion, which is higher both compared to the previous year (by 9.8%) and 2019 (by 61.7%).
In absolute values, in 2022, compared to 2021, the expenditures of domestic visitors on transport (by GEL 75.5 mln), accommodation (by GEL 43.7 mln), and food and drinks (by GEL 38 bln) increased significantly.
Hotel Price Index (March, 2023)
18-Apr-2023
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 167 GEL per night in March 2023, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 275 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 122 GEL per night.
The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in March 2023 was 456 GEL per night. In Tbilisi, the average price was 559 GEL, followed by Kakheti – 552, Samtskhe-Javakheti – 458, and Adjara –429.
Issue 143: Subsistence allowance in Georgia (2018-2022)
11-Apr-2023
Socio-economic problems continue to represent a significant challenge for Georgia. Specifically, in 2021, 17.5% of the Georgian population fell under the absolute poverty line. By and large, different states typically offer various forms of social assistance (including subsistence allowance) to help the most vulnerable within society.
In Georgia, the subsistence allowance program provides financial aid to the country’s poorest families, whose rating score is less than 120,001. The rating score is determined by the social services agency and reflects the family’s income and assets. The lower the score, the poorer the family. However, recent studies have indicated that this program does not help beneficiaries to get out of poverty and that it instead encourages them to maintain a low income to remain eligible to receive the allowance. To address such issues, starting from March 2022, the Georgian government implemented a wide-scale public works employment program for the country’s socially vulnerable citizens. It should be noted that the persons involved in the program will maintain the status of socially vulnerable for 4 years.
In this newsletter, we take a close look at the dynamics of the population receiving subsistence allowance. Moreover, the trends with respect to the announced working program are also discussed.
BAG Index (Q1, 2023)
05-Apr-2023
The Business Association of Georgia (BAG) Index is a joint product of the Business Association of Georgia, PMC Research Center and the ifo Institute for Economic Research. The BAG Index summarizes the BAG Business Climate, BAG Employment Barometer and BAG Investment Environment, which are calculated according to the assessments of the top managers of BAG member businesses and companies in their corporate group. In Q1 of 2023, additional questions regarding the employees’ salary dynamics were integrated into the survey. BAG and PMC Research Center publish the BAG Index on a quarterly basis from Q4 2019.
For the previous reports of the BAG Index, please, visit the following link: https://bag.ge/ge/bag-index
Information and Communications Technology Sector in Georgia
03-Apr-2023
Trends in information and communication technologies (ICT) are shaping the future amid existing global challenges. Among major global ICT trends are the growing prevalence of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), increased mobility, and advanced connectivity.
It is essential for Georgia’s economic development that it keeps pace with these worldwide advances, establishes its own niche, and specializes in certain aspects of ICT. The capabilities of countries to use, adopt, and adapt innovations and digital transformation will play a crucial role in their shaping future economic development. That is why it is crucial to analyse the challenges and opportunities with regard to the development of the ICT sector in Georgia
Employment Tracker (March, 2023)
23-Mar-2023
In February 2023, the number of persons receiving a monthly salary increased by 4.9% compared to the corresponding period of 2022 and by 11.6% compared to the corresponding period of 2021.
From September 2022 to February 2023, the total number of vacancies published on jobs.ge amounted to 39,565, which was 20.4% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2021-2022.
In February 2023, compared to January 2023, the total number of vacancies published on jobs.ge decreased by 3.5%.
From September 2022 to February 2023, a total of 7,065 vacancies were published in the field of finance, statistics, which was 40.6% higher than the corresponding period of 2021-2022 and 192.5% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2020-2021.
Monthly Tourism Update (February, 2023)
21-Mar-2023
In 2022, the number of outbound visits made by Georgian residents tripled compared to 2021 and reached 1.7 million, equating to 71% of the pre-pandemic figure.
In 2022, a significant proportion of outbound visits were to Turkey (54%), followed by Russia (14%). Notably, the number of outbound visits to Russia exceeded the pre-pandemic figure by 49% with the highest quarterly increase (143%) coming in Q3 of 2022 compared to Q3 of 2019.
The most popular purpose of outbound visits in 2022 was shopping, representing 41% of total visits, while this number was equal to 29% in 2019. The share of shopping also increased in total expenditure of outbound visitors, reaching GEL 759 million, marking a 16% increase compared to 2019.
Hotel Price Index (February, 2023)
21-Mar-2023
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 140 GEL per night in February 2023, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 236 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 116 GEL per night.
The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in February 2023 was 392 GEL per night. In Kakheti, the average price was 562 GEL, followed by Tbilisi – 489, Samtskhe-Javakheti – 454, and Guria – 339.
Issue 142: Foreign Students and Foreign Language Programs Dynamics in Georgia
15-Mar-2023
In recent years, the number of international students has been increasing worldwide, with their contributions to host countries’ economies growing accordingly, and Georgia is not an exception. As shown in PMC RC’s study, total expenses incurred by foreign students, their foreign relatives, and friends in Georgia in the 2020-2021 academic year exceeded US$132 million. Understanding the dynamics of foreign students and foreign language programs in Georgia is crucial to ensure further growth and investment in the education sector. Therefore, this bulletin overviews the dynamics of foreign students in Georgia and their financial contribution to the country’s education sector.
Georgian Economic Climate (Q1, 2023)
13-Mar-2023
The main findings of the survey of Georgian economists conducted in the first quarter of 2023 are:
The surveyed Georgian economists positively assess Georgia’s present economic situation.
Though their predictions for Georgia’s economic situation for the next six months are negative.
The surveyed Georgian economists’ prediction for real GDP growth for 2023, on average, is 5.5%.
Almost 83% of the surveyed economists think that Russia’s war in Ukraine currently represents a high or very high threat to the Georgian economy. Meanwhile, a skills mismatch was assessed as a very high threat by nearly half of the surveyed economists (44%).
One third of respondents (33%) think that the “GOG Vision 2030 - Development Strategy of Georgia” partially responds to the challenges and problems faced by Georgia but none of the respondents think that the strategy fully addresses them.
Regarding the EU Commission’s analytical report on Georgia’s alignment with the EU acquis, the majority of surveyed economists (75%) think that introducing improvements with respect to the environment and climate change mitigation in line with the EU acquis will be challenging or very challenging.
Issue 19: Ukrainian Refugees and their Effect on Labor Markets at Home and Abroad
02-Mar-2023
The unprovoked Russian invasion of Ukraine has brought economic and political turmoil to the world, taking numerous civilian lives as well. Since the war broke out, more than 8 million Ukrainians have been recorded as having emigrated across Europe, making it crucial to understand their impacts on the economy and in particular the labor market of host countries and Ukraine. Therefore, this bulletin overviews the dynamics of displacement from Ukraine and analyzes their current and potential economic and social impacts on Ukraine and host countries.
Issue 3: Macro Overview
28-Feb-2023
Macro Overview aims to review the recent trends and developments of the Georgian economy and sets the stage for what is to come in the approaching months.
Macro overview highlights some of the key indicators in Georgian economy such as inflation, economic growth, and employment. It also explores external sector of the economy, overviewing trends in tourism, trade, remittances and FDI.
The publication consolidates and includes analytical pieces from the PMC Research Center’s periodic newsletters, such as economic outlook and indicators series, monthly tourism update, black sea bulletin, employment tracker. It also includes insights about the expectations of businesses and economists about the future of the Georgian economy from our Georgian economic climate and bag indexes.
Monthly Tourism Update (January, 2023)
24-Feb-2023
In 2022, the number of international visitors reached a total of 3.9 million, which is 176% higher compared to 2021 and amounts to 65% of the pre-pandemic (2019) total. In 2022, the highest number of visitors to Georgia came from Russia, amounting to 915,000. Russia was followed by neighboring countries: Turkey (711 thousand) and Armenia (531 thousand).
In 2022, the income from international travel reached USD 3.5 billion, which is 8% higher compared to 2019. The recovery was gradual but by Q4 of 2022, it had exceeded the corresponding figure for Q4 of 2019 by 46%.
In terms of nationality, the income from Russian travelers was the highest in 2022 and amounted to USD 891 million (25.3% of total income), which is 15% higher compared to 2019. Meanwhile, income from Ukrainian travelers exceeded the pre-pandemic number by 52% and reached USD 282 million.
Hotel Price Index (January, 2023)
24-Feb-2023
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 159 GEL per night in January 2023, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 245 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 129 GEL per night.
The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in January 2023 was 400 GEL per night. In Kakheti, the average price was 545 GEL, followed by Tbilisi – 462, Samtskhe-Javakheti – 447, and Guria – 340.
Employment Tracker (February, 2023)
23-Feb-2023
In January 2023, the number of persons receiving a monthly salary increased by 2.5% compared to the corresponding period of 2022 and by 10.7% compared to the corresponding period of 2021.
From August 2022 to January 2023, the total number of vacancies published on jobs.ge amounted to 40,531, which was 24.3% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2021-2022.
In January 2023, compared to December 2022, the total number of vacancies published on jobs.ge increased by 19%.
From August 2022 to January 2023, a total of 7,077 vacancies were published in the field of finance, statistics, which was 142.9% higher than the corresponding period of 2021-2022 and 297.2% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2020-2021.
Monthly Tourism Update (December, 2022)
26-Jan-2023
In 2022, the tourism sector showed a significant recovery, which could be attributed to a combination of factors, such as the rapid inflow of international visitors after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, the alleviation of COVID-19-related restrictions, the reopening of land borders, the revival of flight routes, and sustained high demand among domestic visitors.
The accommodation sector recovered significantly in Q3 of 2022, with turnover showing a 20.1% increase compared to Q3 of 2019. Notably, the turnover of the accommodation sector reached a high of GEL 794.9 mln in Q3 of 2022.
In the first three quarters of 2022, the average monthly salary in the accommodation sector exceeded pre-pandemic values significantly with an average YoY increase of 22.5%. This could be attributed to a labor shortage in the tourism sector, inflationary trends, and increased demand for accommodation and food services.
Hotel Price Index (December, 2022)
26-Jan-2023
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 167 GEL per night in December 2022, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 275 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 122 GEL per night.
The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in December 2022 was 456 GEL per night. In Tbilisi, the average price was 559 GEL, followed by Kakheti – 552, Samtskhe-Javakheti – 458, and Adjara – 429.
Employment Tracker (January, 2023)
24-Jan-2023
In December 2022, the number of persons receiving a monthly salary increased by 2.9% compared to the corresponding period of 2021 and by 6.4% compared to the corresponding period of 2020.
In 2022, from July to December, the total number of vacancies published on jobs.ge amounted to 41,237, which was 26% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2021 and 159.4% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2020.
In December 2022, compared to November 2022, the total number of vacancies published on jobs.ge decreased by 19%.
In 2022, from July to December, a total of 11,928 vacancies were published in the field of sales/procurement, which was 41% higher than the corresponding period of 2021 and 197% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2020.
Issue 18: Audit of War Damage and Overview of Ukraine’s Budget for 2023
09-Jan-2023
The unprovoked Russian invasion of Ukraine has shattered the lives of millions of civilians and destroyed dozens of Ukrainian cities. The damage has been enormous, with only some of it economically measurable. While we cannot assess the true cost of thousands of lives being taken, we can approximately measure the damage done to Ukraine’s infrastructure, social, and other sectors, which is discussed in this bulletin alongside the revised 2023 budget for Ukraine.
BAG Index (Q4, 2022)
28-Dec-2022
The Business Association of Georgia (BAG) Index is a joint product of the Business Association of Georgia, PMC Research Center and the ifo Institute for Economic Research. The BAG Index summarizes the BAG Business Climate, BAG Employment Barometer and BAG Investment Environment, which are calculated according to the assessments of the top managers of BAG member businesses and companies in their corporate group. In Q4 of 2022, additional questions regarding the need for labor resources were integrated into the survey. BAG and PMC Research Center publish the BAG Index on a quarterly basis from Q4 2019.
For the previous reports of the BAG Index, please, visit the following link: https://bag.ge/ge/bag-index
Monthly Tourism Update (November, 2022)
27-Dec-2022
Since 2021, international visits to Georgia have been showing signs of significant recovery. The recovery accelerated in Q3 of 2022, when the number of international visits reached 69% of the corresponding figure in Q3 of 2019.
The average expenditure per visit tripled in Q3 of 2022 compared to the corresponding period of 2019, and reached GEL 2,440. Meanwhile, the total expenditure exceeded the pre-pandemic (Q3 of 2019) value by 41%, reaching GEL 4.6 billion.
The average nights spent per visit increased significantly (42%) in Q3 of 2022, compared to the corresponding period of 2019, reaching 6.8 nights per visit, similar to the first half of 2022.
Hotel Price Index (November, 2022)
27-Dec-2022
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 155 GEL per night in November 2022, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 233GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 114 GEL per night.
The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in November 2022 was 419 GEL per night. In Kakheti, the average price was 575 GEL, followed by Tbilisi - 554, Guria - 381 and Adjara - 344.
Employment Tracker (December, 2022)
22-Dec-2022
In November 2022, the number of persons receiving a monthly salary increased by 1.4% compared to the corresponding period of 2021 and by 5.4% compared to the corresponding period of 2020.
Overall, in Q4 of 2022, the BAG Employment Barometer amounted to 29.1 points, which is 1 point more than in Q3. In Q4 of the 2022 year, the Employment Barometer was positive for all sectors.
Overall, in Q4 of 2022, according to the BAG Index Survey 35% of surveyed companies increased their number of employees, 7% recorded a decrease, and 58% reported no change.
In 2022, from June to November, the total number of vacancies published on jobs.ge amounted to 43,323, which was 27.7% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2021 and 154.3% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2020.
In 2022, from June to November, a total of 12,702 vacancies were published in the field of sales/procurement, which was 48% higher than the corresponding period of 2021 and 162% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2020.
According to the Beveridge Curve, labor market efficiency decreased in the post-pandemic period (Q3 2022), compared to the pre-pandemic period (Q4 2019). The latter trend could be attributed to different factors, including labor force migration, the flow of personnel to adjacent sectors, and increased wage expectations of job-seekers (i.e., the minimum wage that candidates are prepared to work for).
Georgian Economic Climate (Q4, 2022)
07-Dec-2022
The main findings of the survey of Georgian economists conducted in the fourth quarter of 2022 are:
Georgian economists have a positive assessment of Georgia’s present economic situation.
Though their predictions for Georgia’s economic situation for the next six months are negative.
Almost 90% of surveyed economists think that high inflation currently represents the highest threat to the Georgian economy.
94% of surveyed economists think that among other policy approaches tighter fiscal policy is likely to be the most effective in tackling inflation in Georgia. Similarly, 89% believe in the effectiveness of imposing a tighter monetary policy.
The majority of Georgian economists (44%) think that the Estonian model for profit tax should be applied to the financial sector in Georgia from 2023.
Issue 17: Ukraine’s Maritime Trade and Port Infrastructure
01-Dec-2022
Russia’s war in Ukraine has stifled the latter’s maritime industry. It has disrupted 15 of Ukraine’s 18 seaports as well as its inland water navigation facilities. As the maritime industry usually plays a crucial part in Ukraine’s external trade, the abovementioned disruptions have hampered the country’s exports markedly. To portray the effects of the halting of operations at Ukrainian ports on both domestic and international markets, it is essential to analyze the significance of Ukraine’s maritime industry and its role in the country’s external trade, the Black Sea, and beyond.
Issue 141: Youth Employment in Georgia
29-Nov-2022
The successful participation of youth in the Georgian labor market is crucial for not only their own personal wellbeing, but also the prosperity of the country as a whole. Although the broad topic of employment is one of the most discussed issues at the national level in Georgia, the more specific matter of youth employment is afforded relatively little attention. Seeking to address this shortcoming, this bulletin focuses on changes in the Georgian labor market and relevant indicators for the age group of 15-24 in the period of 2017-2021.
Monthly Tourism Update (October, 2022)
24-Nov-2022
In Q2 of 2022, international visits to natural attractions amounted to 62% of the pre-pandemic (Q2 of 2019) value, while domestic visits exceeded the pre-pandemic value by 54%, which could be explained by changing behavioral trends among domestic visitors and specifically their increased demand for local tourism destinations.
By the end of the first nine months of 2022, the number of visits to Protected Areas had already recovered to 66% of the total number of visits in 2019. During the covered period, most of the international visitors to Protected Areas were from Russia (83 286 visitors) and Belarus (48 422). Meanwhile, the most visited destinations were Martvili Canyon, followed by Prometheus Cave and Tsalka Canyon.
Hotel Price Index (October, 2022)
24-Nov-2022
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 163 GEL per night in October 2022, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 255 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 121 GEL per night.
The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in October 2022 was 428 GEL per night. In Kakheti, the average price was 570 GEL, followed by Tbilisi - 564, Guria - 531 and Adjara - 378.
Employment Tracker (November, 2022)
22-Nov-2022
In October 2022, the number of persons receiving a monthly salary decreased by 0.4% compared to the corresponding period of 2021 and increased by 3.7% compared to the corresponding period of 2020.
In 2022, from May to October, the total number of vacancies published on jobs.ge amounted to 43,751, which was 32% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2021 and 164% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2020.
In 2022, from May to October, a total of 12,962 vacancies were published in the field of sales/procurement, which was 58% higher than the corresponding period of 2021 and 209% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2020.
Employment Tracker (October, 2022)
25-Oct-2022
In September 2022, the number of persons receiving a monthly salary increased by 3.5% compared to the corresponding period of 2021 and by 6.3% compared to the corresponding period of 2020.
Overall, in Q2 of 2022, the BAG Employment Barometer amounted to 27.7 points, which is 2.8 points more than in Q1. In Q2 of 2022 year, the Employment Barometer was positive for all sectors.
Overall, according to the BAG Index Survey, in Q2 of 2022, 32.1% of surveyed companies increased their number of employees, 6.3% recorded a decrease, and 61.6% reported no change.
In 2022, from April to September, the total number of vacancies published on jobs.ge amounted to 42,523, which was 37% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2021 and 194% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2020.
In 2022, from April to September, a total of 12,628 vacancies were published in the field of sales/procurement, which was 63% higher than the corresponding period of 2021 and 263% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2020.
Monthly Tourism Update (September, 2022)
12-Oct-2022
Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the border crossing statistics have shown significant differences in the number of entries and exits by Russians, Belarusians, and Ukrainians. From January to September 2022, the difference between entries and exits of citizens of Russia was equal to 58.6 thousand unique persons.
Despite only a partial recovery in the number of international visits, in Q1 of 2022, the total expenditure of international visitors exceeded the pre-pandemic (Q1 of 2019) value by 21%, while in Q2 of 2022, the total expenditure was only 6% lower than Q2 of 2019.
The average expenditure per visit tripled in Q1 of 2022 and almost doubled in Q2 of 2022, compared to the corresponding periods of 2019. This could be explained by the fact that in the first half of 2022, the average length of stay almost doubled as it increased from 3.8 to 6.4 nights.
Hotel Price Index (September, 2022)
12-Oct-2022
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 177 GEL per night in September 2022, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 287 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 115 GEL per night.
The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in September 2022 was 440 GEL per night. In Kakheti, the average price was 580 GEL, followed by Adjara - 489, Guria - 454 and Tbilisi - 434.
Issue 140: Georgia in International Rankings
04-Oct-2022
International rankings and indicators help us to understand and assess how countries are performing in different areas. In this bulletin, Georgia’s positions in international rankings and the dynamics therein are reviewed based on the latest data. Georgia’s positions will also be compared with other Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Moldova, Ukraine, and Belarus).
Georgian Economic Climate (Q3, 2022)
28-Sep-2022
According to a survey of Georgian economists, the economic climate in the country in the third quarter of 2022 has improved compared to both: the second quarter of 2022 and the third quarter of 2021.
In the third quarter of 2022, the surveyed Georgian economists positively assessed Georgia’s present economic situation. Their assessment of the present economic situation has significantly improved compared to both - the second quarter of 2022, as well as third quarter of 2021 when the assessment of the economic situation of the respective quarter was negative.
The surveyed economists’ predictions for Georgia’s economic situation for the next six months were also positive. Though, their expectations have slightly worsened compared to the predictions made for the next six months in the second quarter of 2022, but have significantly improved compared to the third quarter of 2021, when the economists had negative expectations for the next six months of the respective quarter.
Employment Tracker (September, 2022)
26-Sep-2022
In August 2022, the number of persons receiving a monthly salary increased by 3.5% compared to the corresponding period of 2021 and by 7.7% compared to the corresponding period of 2020.
In 2022, from March to August, the total number of vacancies published on jobs.ge amounted to 39,984, which was 37% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2021 and 197% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2020.
In 2022, from March to August, a total of 11,757 vacancies were published in the field of sales/procurement, which was 64% higher than the corresponding period of 2021 and 258% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2020.
Monthly Tourism Update (August, 2022)
19-Sep-2022
In the third quarter of every year between 2016 and 2020, the number of international visits to Adjara, on average, amounted to 42% of total international visits to Georgia, while contributing up to 14.9% of all domestic visits.
Throughout the past few months, in Adjara in particular and Georgia in general, significant hotel price increases have been evident due to a combination of factors, such as the marked recovery of international tourism, the rapid inflow of Russians, Belarusians, and Ukrainians since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war, higher demand for Georgian tourist destinations among domestic visitors, and a rise in prices for essential goods for hotel maintenance.
In the summer of 2022, a significant increase has been observed in average hotel prices compared to the pre-pandemic level in Georgia. Specifically, price increases have been especially apparent in Adjara. Average hotel prices there increased by 16% compared to 2019 and by 25% compared to 2021. Meanwhile, in Batumi, average summer prices compared to the same two years increased by 17% and 23%, respectively.
Hotel Price Index (August, 2022)
19-Sep-2022
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 182 GEL per night in August 2022, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 284 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 122 GEL per night.
The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in August 2022 was 510 GEL per night. In Guria, the average price was 727 GEL, followed by Kakheti - 569 GEL, Adjara - 547 and Tbilisi - 538.
Issue 139: Emigration and Effect of Remittances on Georgian Economy
13-Sep-2022
Georgia is a country of emigration. Since the mid-1990s, Georgian migration patterns have been characterized as labor emigration driven by socio-economic challenges (high unemployment, poverty, and low salaries). As different studies have indicated, the significant proportion of Georgian labor emigrants reside and work illegally in their host country. The primary motivation for Georgian emigrants is to be able to send money back to their families in Georgia to support them. This bulletin discusses Georgia’s emigration trends and the role of remittances in the Georgian economy on macro and micro levels over the last decade.
Wheat And Flour Sector in Georgia
07-Sep-2022
Since the spread of COVID-19 at the end of 2019, the ensuing pandemic has caused an economic crisis impacting global food availability and food security. The effects of the pandemic have been aggravated by the war between Russia and Ukraine, two prominent players in global food and agriculture.
In Georgia, since July 2021, the YoY price increase for both wheat flour and wheat bread has shown a dramatic increase. The YoY price increase for wheat flour reached an all-time maximum of 36.5% in July 2022, while for wheat bread, it peaked in June 2022 at 36.3%.
Finally, considering Georgia’s high dependence on imports from Russia and low self-sufficiency in terms of domestic wheat production, it is crucial that the dialogue between potential trade partners, such as Kazakhstan and Turkey, be intensified in the long run to diversify the wheat market and ensure food security for Georgia.
Maritime Trade and Port Infrastructure in Black Sea Countries
06-Sep-2022
The Black Sea region is often referred to as a gateway between Europe and Asia, though its potential benefits are far from being fully realized. This is especially true for the naval trade. Meanwhile, the enhancement of maritime transportation and the improvement of port infrastructure becomes more and more desirable if not indispensable for economic development of the region.
Recent drastic changes – namely the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, which has further exacerbated the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, are significantly hindering this development. At the same time, it is yet ambiguous how the war might alter the development of maritime trade in the region. Accordingly, this bulletin aims to analyze the pre-war state of the Black Sea region’s logistics, port activity, and shipping connectivity and then provide some insights into the potential impact of the ongoing war.
Employment Tracker (August, 2022)
23-Aug-2022
In July 2022, the number of persons receiving a monthly salary increased by 1% compared to the corresponding period of 2021 and by 4.5% compared to the corresponding period of 2020.
In 2022, from February to July, the total number of vacancies published on jobs.ge amounted to 38,048, which was 38% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2021 and 155% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2020.
In 2022, from February to July, a total of 11,179 vacancies were published in the field of sales/procurement, which was 62% higher than the corresponding period of 2021 and 215% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2020.
Special Issue: Overview of the Measures Taken to Support the Ukrainian Economy During the War
18-Aug-2022
The Ukrainian authorities have recently presented Ukraine’s National Recovery Plan and while it is indeed important for the Government to have a plan for Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction, it is also crucial to analyze what instruments the state is using now to survive the war economically and to safeguard business activity, primarily of SMEs.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, martial law has been in effect across the whole territory of Ukraine. Alongside restrictions on the movement of male Ukrainian citizens aged 18 to 60 from their places of residence, the imposition of curfews, and other laws needed to repel the armed aggression and ensure national security, the Ukrainian government has also adopted special laws and measures aimed at supporting business and economic activity in the country.
To ensure the resilience of the wartime economy, a significant portion of assistance has already been provided to the Ukrainian government by partner countries and international organizations. Currently, as Ukraine is at the first stage of its recovery plan, also referred to as the “wartime economy” or “urgent/resilience” stage, the total funding needs for 2022 are estimated at USD 60-65 billion.
Hotel Price Index (July, 2022)
16-Aug-2022
In Georgia, the average cost of a room1 in a 3-star hotel was 173 GEL per night in July 2022, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 276 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 118 GEL per night.
The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in July 2022 was 563 GEL per night. In Guria, the average price was 1001 GEL, followed by Tbilisi - 619 GEL, Adjara - 612 and Kakheti - 522.
Monthly Tourism Update (July, 2022)
16-Aug-2022
In the past few months, significant increases in hotel prices have been evident due to a combination of factors, such as the partial recovery of international tourism, the rapid inflow of Russians, Belarusians, and Ukrainians since the beginning of the war, a higher domestic tourism demand among Georgians, and the increase in prices for essential goods for hotel services.
Issue 2: Macro Overview
03-Aug-2022
Macro Overview aims to review the recent trends and developments of the Georgian economy and sets the stage for what is to come in the approaching months.
Macro overview highlights some of the key indicators in Georgian economy such as inflation, economic growth, and employment. It also explores external sector of the economy, overviewing trends in tourism, trade, remittances and FDI.
The publication consolidates and includes analytical pieces from the PMC Research Center’s periodic newsletters, such as economic outlook and indicators series, monthly tourism update, black sea bulletin, employment tracker. It also includes insights about the expectations of businesses and economists about the future of the Georgian economy from our Georgian economic climate and bag indexes.
Employment Tracker (July, 2022)
26-Jul-2022
In June 2022, the number of persons receiving a monthly salary increased by 4.3% compared to the corresponding period of 2021 and by 11.7% compared to the corresponding period of 2020.
According to the BAG Index Survey, overall, in Q2 of 2022, 29.9% of surveyed companies increased their number of employees, 5.6% recorded a decrease, and 64.5% reported no change.
In 2022, from January to June, the total number of vacancies published on jobs.ge amounted to 36,584, which was 51% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2021 and 123% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2020.
In 2022, from January to June, a total of 10,695 vacancies were published in the field of sales/procurement, which was 112% higher than the corresponding period of 2021 and 165% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2020.
Monthly Tourism Update (June, 2022)
20-Jul-2022
Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the border crossing statistics have revealed significant differences in the number of entries and exits by Russians, Belarusians, and Ukrainians. In May 2022, the gap between the number of entries and exits declined significantly with the number of exists increasing significantly for Ukrainians, while in the same month, for Russians and Belarusians, the number of exits exceeded the number of entries.
Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, travel receipts from Russia have shown a significant increase, while in March 2022 receipts from Belarus experienced a drastic jump of 552% compared to February 2022 and this high level has been maintained for the following three months.
Hotel Price Index (June, 2022)
20-Jul-2022
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 157 GEL per night in June 2022, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 245 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 110 GEL per night. The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in May 2022 was 519 GEL per night. In Guria, the average price was 702 GEL, followed by Kakheti - 575, Tbilisi - 568 GEL and Adjara - 552.
Issue 138: Poverty in Georgia (2017-2021)
13-Jul-2022
Poverty alleviation remains one of the biggest challenges for the world, including Georgia. The COVID-19 crisis has worsen the problem as many households’ income shrank even further due to the crisis. For instance, according to a public opinion poll conducted by NDI in 2021, 37% of respondents indicated that poverty was the main issue they were facing. Against this background, we take a closer look at poverty in Georgia and discuss trends and changes therein over the last five years.
Construction Sector in Georgia
30-Jun-2022
In this issue, we overview major economic indicators in the construction sector, construction permits, commercial bank mortgage loans for real estate purchases, and construction-related price indices. In addition to that, the results of the BAG business index survey regarding the sales, sales prices, employment, and factors hindering business activity in the construction sector are also provided.
Georgian Economic Climate (Q2, 2022)
23-Jun-2022
According to a survey of Georgian economists, the economic climate in the country in the second quarter of 2022 has improved compared to the first quarter of 2022, as well as compared to the second quarter of 2021.
With respect to the covered period, the surveyed Georgian economists positively assessed Georgia’s present economic situation. Meanwhile, in the first quarter of 2022 and in the second quarter of 2021, the assessment of the economic situation for the respective quarters was negative. Thus, in the second quarter of 2022, their assessment of the present economic situation has significantly improved compared to both quarters.
The surveyed economists’ predictions for Georgia’s economic situation for the next six months were also positive. In fact, their expectations were much more optimistic compared to the predictions they made for the next six months in both the first quarter of 2022 and the second quarter of 2021.
Employment Tracker (June, 2022)
22-Jun-2022
In May 2022, the number of persons receiving a monthly salary increased by 5% compared to the corresponding period of 2021 and by 14.6% compared to the corresponding period of 2020.
From December 2021 to May 2022, the total number of vacancies published on jobs.ge amounted to 33,703, which was 67% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2020-2021 and 101% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2019-2020.
From December 2021 to May 2022, a total of 9,635 vacancies were published in the field of sales/procurement, which was 91% higher than the corresponding period of 2020-2021 and 128% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2019-2020.
Issue 137: Pension System in Georgia (2017-2021)
16-Jun-2022
As Georgia struggles to overcome various social and economic problems, pensions remain among the country’s central issues.
For many years, Georgia’s pension system had comprised only a state pension based on a solidarity principle. However, the state pension had not been sufficient to allow retired persons to maintain acceptable living standards. Therefore, pension system reform was a topic of hot discussion for a long time in Georgia and pertinently, in 2018, a funded pension scheme was integrated into the pension system.
The following bulletin will review the key changes that have taken place in the pension system over the last five years.
Monthly Tourism Update (May, 2022)
14-Jun-2022
• Following the easing of travel restrictions by many countries, the outbound international visits by residents of Georgia have shown a significant recovery, reaching almost half of the pre-pandemic level by Q1 2022.• The main destination for outbound Georgian visitors was Turkey, followed by Russia, Armenia, and EU countries. • In Q1 2022, the expenditure of outbound visitors reached GEL 285 mln, which is 14% lower compared to Q1 2020, and 21% lower compared to Q1 2019.
Hotel Price Index (May, 2022)
14-Jun-2022
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 148 GEL per night in May 2022, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 255 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 105 GEL per night.
The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in May 2022 was 468 GEL per night. In Kakheti, the average price was 581 GEL, followed by Tbilisi - 558, Guria - 474 GEL and Adjara - 457.
The Sixth Analytical Report: Sector and Value Chain Analytics in Georgia
06-Jun-2022
This annual report provides an analysis of economic trends, as well as denoting the challenges and opportunities (in local, regional, and global contexts) across selected value chains within six sectors to improve evidence-based decision-making through the provision of quality information and analytics. The specific sectors are tourism, creative industries, light manufacturing, shared intellectual services, waste management and recycling, along with cross-cutting sectors. The analysis tracks trends of 2021.
Issue 136: The Roles of Russia and Ukraine in Georgia’s Food and Energy Security
02-Jun-2022
PMC RC stands firmly with Ukraine, supports its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and condemns Russia’s ongoing military aggression. While the most devastating outcome of this war is the humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine and the destroyed lives of people, it is also essential to discuss the consequences of this war on the global economy.
Georgia lacks its own production and is highly dependent on imports of essential food and energy goods. Considering Russia and Ukraine are prominent players in the global trade of food and agricultural products, while Russia is one of the world’s largest exporters of energy products, in this bulletin, we discuss threats to the food and energy security of Georgia amid Russia-Ukraine War.
Employment Tracker (May, 2022)
24-May-2022
In April 2022, the number of persons receiving a monthly salary increased by 3% compared to the corresponding period of 2021 and by 15% compared to the corresponding period of 2020.
From November 2021 to April 2022, the total number of vacancies published on jobs.ge amounted to 32,301, which was 81% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2020-2021 and 69% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2019-2020.
From November 2021 to April 2022, a total of 9,112 vacancies were published in the field of sales/procurement, which was 109% higher than the corresponding period of 2020-2021 and 82% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2019-2020.
Issue 135: Vocational Education in Georgia (2017-2021)
23-May-2022
In recent years strengthening vocational education and training (VET) has been among the top priorities of Georgia’s education strategy. In the process, several important reforms have been undertaken including the establishment of the “Vocational Skills Agency”, with the primary goal of increasing private sector participation in VET, and amendments to the rules regarding the authorization of VET institutions, which are widely believed to improve the quality of education. Moreover, specific goals were set under the “2021-2025 Vocational Education Strategy” such as increasing the number of VET students to support the country’s socio-economic development, ensuring their competitiveness by developing professional and general skills, and providing lifelong educational opportunities. The following bulletin discusses the trends of development in VET in Georgia over the last five years.
E-Work Development in Georgia
17-May-2022
This paper explores the challenges and opportunities teleworking presents in the rural areas of Georgia and seeks answers on how to resolve the existing problems while taking advantage of the transitions the labor market is undergoing. It aims to analyze the institutional relationships, barriers, and opportunities to promoting change in the e-work market or workforce development system in the rural areas of Georgia. The paper also sets out to identify the potential policy interventions that could be taken to support this change.
The Fifth Analytical Report: Sector and Value Chain Analytics in Georgia
16-May-2022
This quarterly report provides an analysis of economic trends, as well as denoting the challenges and opportunities (in local, regional, and global contexts) in selected value chains within six sectors to improve evidence-based decision-making by providing quality information and analytics. The specific sectors covered are tourism; creative industries; light manufacturing; shared intellectual services; solid waste management and recycling; and cross-cutting sectors. The analysis tracks trends from the third quarter of 2021.
Monthly Tourism Update (April, 2022)
13-May-2022
In 2021, the recovery of international tourist arrivals to Georgia (31% of 2019 figure) was lower both compared to European (38%) and Central/Eastern European (36%) averages, but higher compared to the global average (28%).
Among the selected international benchmark countries (Albania, Croatia, and Greece), Georgia performed the worst, while Albania almost recovered to 2019 levels (89%).
Compared to its neighboring countries, Georgia performed worse than Turkey (55%) and Armenia (46%), but better than Azerbaijan (25%).
Hotel Price Index (April, 2022)
13-May-2022
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 141 GEL per night in March 2022, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 231 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 103 GEL per night.
The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in March 2022 was 413 GEL per night. In Tbilisi and Kakheti, the average price was 493 GEL, followed by Guria - 398 GEL and Adjara - 390.
Microfinance Sector in Georgia (2018-Q1 2022)
10-May-2022
Financial institutions play a pivotal role in the development of the Georgian economy. Indeed, while the financial system remains dominated by commercial banks, microfinance institutions (MFIs) are the biggest non-bank lending institutions based on portfolio volume.
The PMC RC periodically publishes sector snapshots on state of MFI sector in Georgia and in this bulletin the state of sector during the period of 2018-Q1 2022 will be overviewed.
Monthly Tourism Update (March, 2022)
02-May-2022
In March 2022, the number of Russian, Belarusian and Ukrainian travelers entering country increased significantly and reached 45.1 thsd, 20 thsd and 16.9 thsd, respectively. The month over month (MoM) increase was especially high for Belarus (281%) and Russia (69%). Meanwhile, the exit from Georgia by Belarusian and Russian visitors has also shown a significant MoM increase.
In March 2022, remarkable differences can be noticed between the number of entries and exits, indicating that significant part of the travelers, especially from Russia and Belarus, have not left the country.
In March 2022, the travel receipts from Belarus and Russia showed MoM increase of 551% and 133%, respectively, which again strengthens the observation of the rapid inflow of travelers from Russia and Belarus.
Hotel Price Index (March, 2022)
02-May-2022
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 152 GEL per night in March 2022, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 246 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 114 GEL per night.
The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in March 2022 was 406 GEL per night. In Tbilisi, the average price was 574 GEL, followed by Kakheti - 451 GEL, Samtskhe-Javakheti - 373 GEL and Guria - 352 GEL.
Employment Tracker (April, 2022)
26-Apr-2022
In March 2022, the number of persons receiving a monthly salary increased by 4.9% compared to the corresponding period of 2021 and by 5.3% compared to the corresponding period of 2020.
From October 2021 to March 2022, the total number of vacancies published on jobs.ge amounted to 32,380, which was 91% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2020-2021 and 39% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2019-2020.
From October 2021 to March 2022, a total of 2,330 vacancies were published in the field of informational technologies, which was 33% higher than the corresponding period of 2020-2021 and 48% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2019-2020.
Marine Fishing Sector in Georgia
19-Apr-2022
The marine fishing cluster in Georgia is mainly based in Poti in the Samegrelo-Zemo Svaneti region. The primary activity for companies therein is fishing in the Black Sea. Currently, enterprises mainly deploy outdated, Soviet-era vessels in their operations, which are in acute need of upgrading. However,significant measures have been taken to tackle this pressing challenge.
This issue is largely based on the “Marine Fishing Cluster Diagnostic Study in Samegrelo-Zemo Svaneti Region” published by PMC Research Center for United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) under the “EU Innovative Action for Private Sector Competitiveness in Georgia (EU IPSC).”
Special Issue: Assessment of the Effectiveness of Sanctions Against Russia
06-Apr-2022
The sanctions imposed on Russia are unprecedented in their scale and speed. In total, including restrictions already been in place before the 2022 invasion, Russia has been the subject of over 5,000 restrictive measures enacted by 41 countries, which makes it the world’s most sanctioned country. This bulletin provides an overview of the most important sanctions that have been imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 and an assessment of the potential effectiveness of those sanctions.
Issue 134: Subsistence Allowance in Georgia (2017-2021)
30-Mar-2022
Socio-economic problems remain significantly challenging for Georgia. Specifically, in 2020, 21.3% of the Georgian population fell under the absolute poverty line. To support the most vulnerable within society, states ordinarily provide diverse social assistance, sometimes including subsistence allowance.
In Georgia, the subsistence allowance program provides financial aid to the country’s poorest families, which is determined by the Social Service Agency rating system. The lower a family’s rating, the poorer their financial position. Recent studies have however indicated that the program does not help beneficiaries to get out of poverty and instead encourages them to maintain a low income in order to receive the allowance. Moreover, the Georgian government plans to significantly reform the program in the nearest future. According to the planned reform, instead of providing money directly, families will be given job opportunities to improve their financial positions. Before changes are made within the program, we take a closer look at the dynamics and structure of the population to have been receiving the subsistence allowance over the last five years.
Supporting E-Work Market Development in Rural Areas
29-Mar-2022
This publication includes the survey findings of the opportunities for teleworking, among employees of business companies. The survey was conducted through telephone interviews in January-May 2021 and predominantly covered large and medium sized companies in five self-governing cities: Tbilisi, Kutaisi, Batumi, Rustavi and Poti.
The survey was prepared in the framework of the project “Supporting E-work Market Development in Rural Areas”, in assistance from the European Union (EU) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) under the EU Neighbourhood Programme for Agriculture and Rural Development (ENPARD).
Employment Tracker (March, 2022)
28-Mar-2022
In February 2022, the number of persons receiving a monthly salary increased by 7% compared to the corresponding period of 2021 and by 3% compared to the corresponding period of 2020.
In February 2022, the average share of persons receiving a monthly salary up to 600 GEL amounted to 25.5%, which was 3 percentage points less than the corresponding period of 2021, and 7 percentage points lower than the corresponding period of 2020.
In February 2022, the average share of persons receiving a monthly salary of more than 2,400 GEL amounted to 15.7%, which was 2.8 percentage points more compared to the corresponding period of 2021, and 4 percentage points higher than the corresponding period of 2020.
In February 2022, the number of persons receiving a monthly salary higher than 9 600 GEL, increased by 37% compared to 2021 and 50% compared to 2020.
Monthly Tourism Update (February, 2022)
23-Mar-2022
In this issue we will discuss the hotel price dynamics of winter destinations in Georgia.
According to the Georgian National Tourism Administration (GNTA), Mtskheta-Mtianeti and Samtskhe-Javakheti have been among the top visited regions in winter season, largely due to major ski resorts (Gudauri and Bakuriani) being located there.
Throughout 2020, the YoY HPI was negative for both regions, with a more pronounced YoY decline in Samtskhe-Javakheti. As 2021 wore on, hotel prices increased significantly and from December 2021 to February 2022 the HPI in Mtskheta-Mtianeti averaged 23.5%, while for Samtskhe-Javakheti it was 15.2%.
The average monthly hotel prices were higher in Mtskheta-Mtianeti region compared to Samtskhe-Javakheti from January 2019 to February 2022. In particular, during winter months the average hotel price in Mtskheta-Mtianeti was 175 GEL, which was 12.9% higher compared to Samtskhe-Javakheti (155 GEL).
Hotel Price Index (February, 2022)
23-Mar-2022
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 140 GEL per night in February 2022, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 234 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 113 GEL per night. The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in February 2022 was 416 GEL per night. In Tbilisi, the average price was 556 GEL, followed by Kakheti - 482 GEL, Samtskhe-Javakheti - 389 GEL and Guria - 387 GEL.
Georgian Economic Climate ( Q1, 2022 )
10-Mar-2022
According to a survey of Georgian economists, the economic climate in the country in the first quarter of 2022 has worsened compared to the fourth quarter of 2021 but has improved compared to the first quarter of 2021. In the covered period, the surveyed Georgian economists issued a negative assessment of Georgia’s present economic situation. For the first quarter of 2022 the present economic situation was deemed to have worsened compared to the fourth quarter of 2021, albeit to have significantly improved compared to the first quarter of 2021. The surveyed economists’ predictions for Georgia’s economic situation for the next six months were even more negative. In fact, their expectations for this period were lower compared to their predictions made in the fourth quarter of 2021, but higher compared to the ones made in the first quarter of 2021.
Issue 133: Foreign Students and Foreign Language Programs Dynamics in Georgia
28-Feb-2022
In recent years, the number of international students has been increasing worldwide. For instance, according to UNESCO data from 2015 to 2019, the number of international students increased from 4.8 million to 6.1 million. Moreover, studies have illustrated that international students, directly and indirectly, contribute to the host countries’ economies through tuition fees, living costs, transportation, travel, and other aspects. In this issue, we overview the dynamics of foreign students in Georgia and their financial contribution to the country’s educational sector.
Monthly Tourism Update (January, 2022)
21-Feb-2022
The number of international travelers increased by 471.2% in January 2022, compared to the same period of 2021, and declined by 62.3% compared to the same period in 2019. Meanwhile, the number of international visitors increased by 424.4% (2022/2021) and declined by 59.5% (2022/2019), and the number of international tourists increased by 455.7% (2022/2021) and declined by 46.5% (2022/2019).
In January 2022, the Hotel Price Index (HPI) showed a significant 5.3% increase in prices compared to 2021, with the highest price increases recorded in Samtskhe-Javakheti (32.8%) and Mtskheta-Mtianeti (20.6%) regions.
The number of employees in the HORECA industry increased steadily from 2016 to 2019 with an average annual growth rate of 10.1%. However, in 2020 the number of employees dropped by 33.2%. Even though some positive trends have emerged since Q2 of 2021, the number of employees in the industry is still well below pre-pandemic levels.
The nominal average monthly salaries of employees in the HORECA industry also increased steadily throughout the 2016-2019 period. Since the pandemic began, salaries have been declining significantly. However, since Q2 2021, salaries recorded a considerable YoY increase, which can be explained by the high inflation rate, partial alleviation of restrictions, and higher demand in the HORECA industry.
Hotel Price Index (January, 2022)
21-Feb-2022
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 132 GEL per night in January 2022, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 237 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 107 GEL per night.
The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in January 2022 was 441 GEL per night. In Kakheti, the average price was 567 GEL, followed by Tbilisi - 524 GEL, Samtskhe-Javakheti - 487 GEL and Adjara - 362 GEL.
Black Sea Countries in International Rankings
14-Feb-2022
In this bulletin, we discuss the positions held by Black Sea countries in various international rankings (indicators and indices). This helps us to understand and assess how those states are performing in different areas, to detect what similarities and differences can be found between the countries of the region, as well as to compare the performance of Black Sea countries with that of the rest of the world.
Issue 1: Macro Overview
03-Feb-2022
PMC Research Center has launched a new periodic newsletter entitled Macro Overview. It aims to review the recent trends and developments of the Georgian economy and sets the stage for what is to come in the approaching months.
Macro overview highlights some of the key indicators in Georgian economy such as inflation, economic growth, and employment. It also explores external sector of the economy, overviewing trends in tourism, trade, remittances and FDI.
The publication consolidates and includes analytical pieces from the PMC Research Center’s periodic newsletters, such as economic outlook and indicators series, monthly tourism update, black sea bulletin, employment tracker. It also includes insights about the expectations of businesses and economists about the future of the Georgian economy from our Georgian economic climate and bag indexes.
Employment Tracker (December, 2021)
26-Jan-2022
The Employment Tracker is a new periodic publication developed by PMC Research Center, in collaboration with Jobs.ge.
The tracker produces valuable insights into the Georgian labor market as it lays out the trajectory of employment and salaries, most demanded job categories, and expectations of specific economic sectors regarding their employment plans. Using real-time data, the insights produced by the tracker can prove crucial to rapid analysis and decision-making process with regards to the labor market.
The publication illustrates a 6-month trend of individuals receiving salary and the number of vacancies posted on Jobs.ge. Additionally, in every quarter based on the BAG Index Survey results, the Employment Tracker will provide information on changes in the number of employees of the Business Association Georgia (BAG) member companies and their expectations regarding the changes in employment.
Monthly Tourism Update (December, 2021)
21-Jan-2022
The number of international travelers increased by 249.2% in December 2021, compared to the same period of 2020, and declined by 73.3% compared to the same period in 2019. Meanwhile, the number of international visitors increased by 226.4% (2021/2020) and declined by 69.9% (2021/2019), and the number of international tourists increased by 239.1% (2021/2020) and declined by 53.7% (2021/2019).
At the beginning of 2021, the Hotel Price Index (HPI) was negative compared to both 2020 and 2019, however the monthly prices showed a significant YoY increase from June 2021 onwards and recovered considerably compared to 2019 levels.
In 2021, the average monthly prices of hotels exceeded both the pre-pandemic level (by 23.7%) and the 2020 level (by 39.1%). Looking at specific categories, the price increase has been most significant for 5-star hotels (by 12.1% compared to 2019 and by 51.4% compared to 2020), while for 3-star hotels the price increase has been least significant (by 4.8% compared to 2019 and by 20.1% compared to 2020).
Hotel Price Index (December, 2021)
21-Jan-2022
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 135 GEL per night in December 2021, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 246 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 106 GEL per night.
The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in December 2021 was 423 GEL per night. In Kakheti, the average price was 548 GEL, followed by Tbilisi - 524 GEL, Guria – 398 GEL and Adjara - 391 GEL.
Issue 14: Economic Growth Forecasts in Ukraine: 2022
14-Jan-2022
Nearly two years since the outbreak of COVID-19, the spread of the virus itself, vaccination rates, and new variants, continue to shape the speed and strength of economic recovery. In the case of Ukraine, geopolitical and domestic political tensions are also important variables to have been hindering economic growth. In this issue, we provide an overview of the ongoing economic recovery in Ukraine and try to supply an economic forecast for the country for 2022, looking at the performance of each economic sector in the process.
Electricity Market Prices and Georgia’s Energy Security
22-Dec-2021
This policy research paper aims to draw the attention of stakeholders in Georgia’s energy sector to the issue of prices, their importance in energy security, and electricity supply security. The paper firstly reviews the existing academic and policy literature and afterwards analyses the current structure of the wholesale electricity market in Georgia to identify different prices and payment schemes. This analysis of the Georgian regulatory framework, along with current data and tendencies, allows us to identify some fundamental issues that are inherent in the structure of the ongoing wholesale electricity market in Georgia. As a result, this policy research paper highlights some challenges that need resolving in order to strengthen the security of supply in the electricity market.
Issue 13: Ukraine in International Rankings
21-Dec-2021
International rankings and indicators help us to understand and assess how countries are performing in different areas. In this bulletin, Ukraine’s positions in international rankings and the dynamics therein are reviewed based on recent data. Its positions will also be compared with other Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, and Moldova).
Monthly Tourism Update (November, 2021)
16-Dec-2021
The number of international travelers increased by 288.8% in November 2021, compared to the same period of 2020, and declined by 73.0% compared to the same period in 2019. Meanwhile, the number of international visitors increased by 267.2% (2021/2020) and declined by 69.3% (2021/2019), and the number of international tourists increased by 283.2% (2021/2020) and declined by 55.3% (2021/2019).
Observing the total number of outbound tourism trips taken by Georgians in 2019 and the pandemic-dominated years since shows that from the beginning of 2021, the demand for international travel among Georgians has demonstrated significant recovery trends, the total number of outbound visits reaching 22.6% of pre-pandemic value in Q3 of 2021, due to vaccination rollout and the easing of entry restrictions in many countries.
An evaluation of the common characteristics of Georgian outbound visits shows that the outbound tourism industry is fairly concentrated in terms of the purpose of visit (top 3 purposes amounting 82.4% of total outbound visits) and visited countries (top 4 destinations accounting for 82.9% of total visits), meaning that the alleviation of entry restrictions to such countries positively affects the number of Georgians taking trips abroad.
Hotel Price Index (November, 2021)
16-Dec-2021
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 135 GEL per night in November 2021, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 226 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 101 GEL per night.
The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in November 2021 was 395 GEL per night. In Kakheti, the average price was 555 GEL, followed by Tbilisi - 544 GEL, Guria – 397 GEL and Adjara - 354 GEL.
Access to Finance for SMEs: Alternative Sources of Finance in Georgia
14-Dec-2021
This paper explores the alternative financial instruments that are or could become available to Georgian SMEs. Through the examination of various secondary sources and several interviews with relevant stakeholders, the paper identifies obstacles and opportunities in the path toward development of two asset-based instruments (leasing and factoring) and two equity-based instruments (crowdfunding and venture capital) that currently have limited availability and/or are being discussed by the regulatory authority of the country.
The paper also looks into several innovative practices that are increasingly being implemented around the world to support the creation of alternative sources of finance, namely open banking, regulatory sandboxes, digital banks, and central bank digital currency (CBDC).Based on secondary sources, the paper also includes three case studies on Lithuania, Poland, and Israel. Meanwhile, the paper ultimately provides several recommendations to foster the development of the alternative instruments reviewed in the paper in Georgia.
The Fourth Analytical Report: Sector and Value Chain Analytics in Georgia
06-Dec-2021
This quarterly report provides an analysis of economic trends, as well as denoting the challenges and opportunities (in local, regional, and global contexts) across selected value chains within six sectors to improve evidence-based decision-making through the provision of quality information and analytics. The specific sectors are tourism, creative industries, light manufacturing, shared intellectual services, waste management and recycling, along with cross-cutting sectors. The analysis tracks trends from the second quarter of 2021.
Please find the full publication in English and the executive summary of the report in Georgian.
Georgian Economic Climate (Q4, 2021)
03-Dec-2021
According to a survey of Georgian economists, the economic climate in the country in the fourth quarter of 2021 has improved compared to the third quarter of the same year, as well as compared to the fourth quarter of 2020. Meanwhile, with respect to the current situation, the Georgian economists’ appraisal was again positive and has improved compared to both: the previous quarter this year and the corresponding quarter of the last year. The economists’ predictions for Georgia’s economic situation for the next six months were also positive. Indeed, their expectations for this period were much higher compared to their predictions in the third quarter of 2021 and the forecasts they made in the fourth quarter of 2020.
Issue 132: Inflation Trends in Georgia
25-Nov-2021
The global economic recovery is ongoing, however the COVID-19 pandemic is still causing considerable volatility. Since the beginning of 2021, inflation rates have increased in both advanced and emerging economies, generally driven by pandemic-related supply-demand mismatches and rapidly rising commodity prices, following a global decline in inflation over the course of 2020. According to the latest forecasts, for most countries upward price pressures are expected to subside with a return to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2022. With this in mind, it is pertinent to compare the inflationary trends of Georgia with global patterns.
In Georgia, the year-over-year (YoY) Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the average price of goods and services acquired by consumers compared to the reference period, has proved relatively similar to global trends, as in December 2020 the inflation rate showed a significant decline of 4.6 percentage points compared to December 2019, reaching 2.4%, major decrease (25.4 pp) in prices coming from “housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels” category, which can be explained by the introduction of utility subsidies for households from November 2020 and plummeting global oil prices in the middle of 2020. This figure was still higher than the lowest figure of the reporting period which was recorded in December 2018 (1.5%). Since the beginning of 2021, monthly YoY CPI inflation has been increasing sharply, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, and reaching its peak to date of 12.8% in October 2021 with a 10 pp increase from the beginning of the year.
On the contrary, YoY monthly core inflation increased in the middle of 2020, reaching 6.6% in June 2020 (with significant increases in prices of routine household maintenance, healthcare, and restaurants and hotels) and this has continued to be relatively stable with a monthly average value of 5.8% over the 2020-2021 period, while the pre-pandemic (2017-2019) monthly average was equal to 3.1%. The magnitude of the fluctuations was significantly lower in the case of core inflation compared to CPI inflation, which could be explained by the fact that the most significant price variations have tended to come under the food and energy categories.
Monthly Tourism Update (October, 2021)
18-Nov-2021
The number of international travelers increased by 324.3% in October 2021, compared to the same period of 2020, and declined by 71.8% compared to the same period in 2019. Meanwhile, the number of international visitors increased by 313.7% (2021/2020) and declined by 69.1% (2021/2019), and the number of international tourists increased by 331.5% (2021/2020) and declined by 57.0% (2021/2019).
An observation of the total number of domestic tourism visits in Georgia in 2019 and then throughout the pandemic revealed that since the end of 2020 the numbers surpassed pre-pandemic levels significantly.
The total expenses of domestic visitors in Q2 2021 reached GEL 610 million, which is 70.7% higher than in the corresponding period of 2019, and 128.1% higher compared to Q2 2020.
Hotel Price Index (October, 2021)
18-Nov-2021
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 136 GEL per night in October 2021, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 246 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 99 GEL per night.
The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in October 2021 was 436 GEL per night. In Kakheti, the average price was 615 GEL, followed by Tbilisi - 588 GEL, Adjara – 416 GEL and Guria - 403 GEL.
Issue 131: Foreign Direct Investment Trends in Georgia
01-Nov-2021
For developing countries, attracting FDI has great potential to serve as a tool to achieve higher economic growth through reducing unemployment, increasing exports, boosting productivity, and improving capital inflows. During the last two decades, Georgia has adopted many reforms to eliminate obstacles in the way of doing business and to attract foreign investors. As a result, Georgia became one of the best performers in the world according to international indices on doing business and openness to investments, and recorded substantial growth in FDI, especially in the period of 2014-2017. However, those reforms have not been sufficient to ensure a prolonged steady inflow of FDI nor have they maximized the potential gains from foreign investment.
Monthly Tourism Update (September, 2021)
22-Oct-2021
The number of international travelers increased by 362.5% in September 2021, compared to the same period of 2020, and declined by 73.1% compared to the same period in 2019. Meanwhile, the number of international visitors increased by 348.8% (2021/2020) and declined by 71.1% (2021/2019), and the number of international tourists increased by 401.3% (2021/2020) and declined by 61.1% (2021/2019);
The hotel industry of Georgia had been growing steadily before the pandemic struck, with a significant increase in the number of hotels and considerable growth in the number of people employed in the sector. In 2020, the previously positive trends in major industry indicators reversed which had a large economic impact, causing a 37.3% decrease in the number of hotels operating in Georgia;
During the first year of the pandemic, the role of Georgian residents in tourism increased significantly as they made up 69.4% of total visitors, while the share of hotel visits for medical reasons peaked over the period of 2016-2020 largely due to the utilization of hotels as quarantine zones.
Issue 130: Poverty in Georgia (2010-2020)
12-Oct-2021
Poverty alleviation remains one of the biggest challenges for the world, including Georgia. Methods applied to determine the poverty rate vary from country to country, so in order to gain a broad understanding of the current situation regarding poverty in Georgia at the international level, it is important to take into account a variety of indicators. In 2020, GDP per capita in Georgia amounted to 4279 USD, ranking it 122nd in the world and 3rd among Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries. Meanwhile, the Human Capital Index (HCI) calculates the contributions of health and education to worker productivity with Georgia scoring 0.57 in 2020, ranking 85th out of 174 countries world and having the lowest score among EaP countries.Multidimensional poverty encompasses various forms of deprivation experienced by poor people such as poor health, lack of education, inadequate living standards, poor quality of work and the threat of violence. In 2019, 3.8% of the population in Georgia was multidimensionally poor, ranking 57th out of 120 countries in the world and first among EaP countries. The Gini Index measures income distribution within a society. In 2021, Georgia scored 36.4 on the Gini Index, ranking 76th out of 165 countries and having the highest inequality rate among EaP countries. In terms of life expectancy, in 2020 average life expectancy in Georgia was 74.2 years, ranking it 101st in the world and 3rd among EaP countries. Taking into account these indicators, Georgia, on an international level, is an upper-middle-income country with moderate rates of inequality and life expectancy. Due to its poor educational and healthcare systems, Georgia has been unable to mobilize its human capital to achieve a higher level of economic development.
Issue 12: Ukraine’s External Trade (January-June, 2017-2021)
04-Oct-2021
Total trade turnover in Ukraine amounted to 61.2 bln USD, marking an increase of 14.07 bln USD (29.9%) compared to the corresponding period of 2020;
Ukrainian exports increased by 7.01 bln USD (30.6%) compared to the corresponding period of 2020, while Ukrainian imports increased by 7.06 bln USD (29.2%);
Compared to the corresponding prepandemic period of 2019, Ukrainian exports increased by 5.5 bln USD (22.3%), while its imports increased by 3.01 bln USD (10.7%);
Ukraine’s trade deficit amounted to 1.3 bln USD, which represents a 0.02 bln USD (1.5%) decrease compared to the corresponding period of 2020;
Ukraine’s main trade partners were China, Poland, and Germany, with shares in total trade volume of 14.5%, 7.6% and 6.5%, respectively. Ukraine’s main export partners were China (14.3% of total exports), Poland (7.9%), and Turkey (6%). Meanwhile, its main import partners were China (14.6% of total imports), Germany (8.9%), and Russia (9.1%);
54.4% of Ukrainian exports were concentrated among its top ten partners, while imports were slightly less diversified with the top ten partners responsible for 63.7% of total imports;
Compared with the corresponding period of 2020, a 24.3% decrease in trade turnover with Russia was observed, while significant 33% and 40.6% increases were recorded in the cases of China and the EU.
Poultry Sector in Georgia
30-Sep-2021
The poultry sector in Georgia enjoyed stable growth between 2007 and 2020 (i.e. since the global outbreak of bird flu had abated in 2006). The sector is the only agricultural sector to contribute VAT payments to the Georgian economy. The sector, as well as most other sectors of the economy, has been affected by the country’s move toward approximation with European standards, especially in recent years. This issue is largely based on the "Poultry Cluster Diagnostic Study in Kvemo Kartli Region," published by PMC Research Center, for United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) under the “EU Innovative Action for Private Sector Competitiveness in Georgia (EU IPSC).” Find the full publication here: https://bit.ly/3kSILkL
Monthly Tourism Update (August, 2021)
20-Sep-2021
The number of international travelers increased by 538.3% in August 2021, compared to the same period of 2020, and declined by 77.3% compared to the same period in 2019. Meanwhile, the number of international visitors increased by 510.5% (2021/2020) and declined by 75.5% (2021/2019), and the number of international tourists increased by 615.2% (2021/2020) and declined by 67.2% (2021/2019);
Tourists coming to Georgia have customarily originated from a small concentrated selection of countries. Specifically, in 2019, 71.4% of all international visitors to Georgia came from its four neighboring countries. However, in August 2021, the corresponding proportion amounted to just 40.8%, mostly due to an increase in the number of visits from Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan;
Targeting tourism markets with potential for expansion could be a fruitful approach in Georgia’s economic recovery as the pandemic eventually subsides. In particular, China, with an average growth rate in its number of visitors to Georgia of 54% over 2015-2019, and Kazakhstan, with a corresponding indicator at 36%, stand out as promising markets.
Hotel Price Index (August, 2021)
20-Sep-2021
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 151 GEL per night in August 2021, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 268 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 95 GEL per night. The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in August 2021 was 514 GEL per night. In Guria, the average price was 807 GEL, followed by Tbilisi - 604 GEL, Adjara - 570 GEL and Kakheti – 546 GEL.
Georgian Economic Climate (Q3, 2021)
16-Sep-2021
According to this survey of Georgian economists, the economic climate in the country in the third quarter of 2021 has improved compared to the second quarter of the same year. Georgian economists’ assessments of the current situation have generally improved, compared to the previous quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2020, but nevertheless remain negative. The economists’ predictions for Georgia’s economic situation for the next six months were also negative. Indeed, their expectations for this period deteriorated slightly, compared to their predictions in the second quarter of 2021 and the forecasts they made in the third quarter of last year.
Issue 11: Inflation Trends in Ukraine
13-Sep-2021
The COVID-19 pandemic continues to represent a major economic shock, causing considerable inflation volatility. The pandemic has been responsible for a substantial decline in inflation rates over the course of 2020 globally. However, this trend underwent a significant reversal in the first half of 2021. In this issue, we overview inflation trends in Ukraine prior to and during the COVID-19 crisis.
The Third Analytical Report: Sector and Value Chain Analytics in Georgia
10-Sep-2021
This quarterly report provides an analysis of economic trends, as well as denoting the challenges and opportunities (in local, regional, and global contexts) across selected value chains within six sectors to improve evidence-based decision-making through the provision of quality information and analytics. The specific sectors are tourism, creative industries, light manufacturing, shared intellectual services, waste management and recycling, along with cross-cutting sectors. The analysis tracks trends from the first quarter of 2021.Please find the full publication in English and the executive summary of the report in Georgian.
The Second Analytical Report: Sector and Value Chain Analytics in Georgia
09-Sep-2021
This quarterly report provides an analysis of economic trends, as well as denoting the challenges and opportunities (in local, regional, and global contexts) in the selected value chains within six sectors to improve evidence-based decision-making by providing quality information and analytics. These specific sectors are tourism, creative industries, light manufacturing, shared intellectual services, waste management, and recycling, along with cross-cutting sectors. The analysis tracks trends from 2016 to December 31, 2020.Please find the full publication in English and the executive summary of the report in Georgian.
The First Analytical Report: Sector and Value Chain Analytics in Georgia
08-Sep-2021
This quarterly report provides an analysis of economic trends, as well as denoting the challenges and opportunities (in local, regional, and global contexts) in the selected value chains within six sectors to improve evidence-based decision-making by providing quality information and analytics. These specific sectors are tourism, creative industries, light manufacturing, shared intellectual services, waste management and recycling, along with cross-cutting sectors. The analysis tracks trends from 2014 to the third quarter of 2020. The following is a synopsis of the findings for this quarter: Tourism (accommodation, catering, adventure tourism, gastronomic tourism, and cultural tourism); Creative industries (media content production and post-production, and artisan); Light manufacturing (furniture, packaging, construction materials, personal and protective equipment (PPE), and wooden toys); and Solid waste management and recycling.
Please find the full publication in English and the executive summary of the report in Georgian.
Issue 129: Georgia’s External Trade (January-June, 2017-2021)
01-Sep-2021
In the first half of 2021, external trade turnover in Georgia amounted to 6.2 bln USD, which is 20.7% more than corresponding period of 2020 and 0.5% more than the prepandemic period of January-June 2019.
Georgian exports amounted to 1.9 bln in January-June 2021, which is 25.2% more than in January-June of 2020 and 5.3% more than in January-June of 2019. Moreover, Georgian imports recorded 4.3 bln USD, which is 18.9% more than in the first half of 2020 and 1.5% less than in the corresponding period of 2019.
In the first half of 2021 Georgian trade deficit increased by 0.3 bln USD (14.5%), compared to the first half of 2020, and decreased by 0.16 bln USD (6.1%), compared to the corresponding period of 2019 and amounted to 2.44 bln USD.
In the period of January-June 2021, compared to January-June of 2020, trade turnover increased with the EU (9.9%), Russia (24.8%) and China (22.7%). However, compared to the corresponding period of 2019, trade turnover increased with Russia (12.3%) and China (27.9%), but decreased with the EU (-14%).
Georgia’s main total trade partners in the first half of 2021 were Turkey (15.2%), Russia (11.8%) and China (10.5%). Main export partners were China (15.4%), Russia (14%) and Azerbaijan (8.4%). Moreover, main import partners were Turkey (18%), Russia (10.8%) and China (8.4%).
Hotel Price Index (July, 2021)
17-Aug-2021
In Georgia, the average cost of a room1 in a 3-star hotel was 149 GEL per night in July 2021, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 265 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse2 was 85 GEL per night.
The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in July 2021 was 524 GEL per night. In Guria, the average price was 809 GEL, followed by Adjara - 550 GEL, Kakheti - 543 GEL and Tbilisi – 539 GEL.
Monthly Tourism Update (July, 2021)
17-Aug-2021
After a challenging 2020 and early 2021 for the tourism sector, various positive developments, such as the alleviation of restrictions, were seen in the tourism sector in Georgia in the second quarter of 2021. As of July 2021, there are no restrictions of movement in place within Georgia, and both land and air borders are open for eligible visitors. Below is a timeline of the relaxing of various COVID-19 measures in the second quarter of 2021:
Since May 17, the curfew was moved from 21:00 to 23:00.
Since May 22, restaurants have been allowed to operate on weekends in open spaces.
Since June 1, restaurants have been allowed to operate on weekends in both open and closed spaces.
Since June 1, land borders have been reopened.
On June 14, tourism information centers around the country re-opened.
On June 16, mandatory PCR testing for visitors aged less than 10 was eliminated.
Since July 1, the curfew (23:00 – 04:00) was removed.
Shared Intellectual Services
16-Aug-2021
This policy brief on the shared intellectual services sector in Georgia has been developed by Policy and Management Consulting Group (PMCG) under the USAID Economic Security Program. Its aims are to identify the key economic policy challenges in Georgia existing in this sector, and to facilitate dialogue between private and public sectors including a wide spectrum of civil society and political representatives.
First, the policy brief provides an overview of the shared intellectual services (SIS) sector in the Georgian economy.
Second, it analyzes policy challenges in this sector in Georgia from the perspectives of different stakeholders, including representatives of the private sector, government, donor organizations, and business associations/clusters. Moreover, it overviews the Georgian government’s responses to the existing challenges in the sector.
Third, it analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the SIS sector in Georgia from the perspectives of different stakeholders (including government, the private sector, business associations/clusters, and donor organizations).
The document concludes by presenting recommendations to address existing challenges in the SIS sector in Georgia.
Light Manufacturing
16-Aug-2021
This policy document has been prepared within the scope of the USAID Economic Security Program. The goal of the program is to improve the competitiveness of four priority sectors (light manufacturing, tourism, creative industries, and shared intellectual services) by increasing investment, revenues, and the number of high-value jobs therein.
This study focuses on the light manufacturing industry, and specifically on the furniture and packaging material sub-sectors. It aims to examine the existing challenges in the relevant value chains and to determine ways to overcome the obstacles identified through dialogue with the representatives of the public and private sectors.
Issue 10: Exchange Rates in Ukraine (2016-2021)
12-Aug-2021
The Ukrainian Hryvnia’s exchange rates relative to foreign currencies experienced some noteworthy tendencies in 2016-2021. This period of course includes the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, which has had a significant impact on exchange rate fluctuations globally. In this bulletin, we review the exchange rate fluctuations in Ukraine in 2016-2021, as well as some of the key factors affecting it.
Post-Pandemic Recovery in the Black Sea Region
09-Aug-2021
A year and a half since the outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the world has entered a new phase in which the race to vaccinate is shaping the path for post-pandemic recovery and economic growth. In this bulletin, we review the dynamics of the virus spread and the extent of the economic recovery being achieved by the countries of the Black Sea region.
Issue 128: Unemployment in Georgia (2017-2020)
27-Jul-2021
In 2021, unemployment remains an unresolved obstacle for the Georgian economy and society’s most pressing problem. Over the years, diverse public opinion polls have indicated that unemployment is the most important issue at national level. For instance, in 2020, according to a public attitudes poll conducted by the National Democratic Institute, for 46% of respondents, the main challenge they were facing was unemployment.This issue focuses on changes in unemployment trends in Georgia in the period of 2017-2020 and provides an analysis of the effects of the COVID-19 crisis on unemployment in the country.
Wine Production Sector in Georgia
15-Jul-2021
The wine industry in Georgia has experienced strong growth over the past decade in all key indicators such as exports, turnover, and employment and salaries (measured both in GEL and in USD). The financials of the sector have also looked impressive during this time.
Monthly Tourism Update (June, 2021)
12-Jul-2021
The number of international travelers increased by 294.2% in June 2021 compared to the same period of 2020, and declined by 82.1% compared to the same period in 2019. Meanwhile, the number of international visitors increased by 286.8% (2021/2020) and declined by 79.8% (2021/2019), and the number of international tourists increased by 361.6% (2021/2020) and declined by 71.7% (2021/2019);
In June 2021, the number of visitors from Israel, Ukraine and Kazakhstan recovered to approximately 75% of their June 2019 levels;
During the period of 2018-2021, average hotel prices in Georgia peaked in 2018, gradually falling in 2019 before plummeting in 2020;
Prices of 5-star hotels experienced the highest volatility, while the prices of guesthouses were most stable;
In June 2021, the Hotel Price Index increased by 1.5% compared to the corresponding month of 2019, mainly driven by positive expectations about tourism’s recovery, as well as the low base effect due to the shock (Russian flight ban) in June 2019.
Hotel Price Index (June, 2021)
12-Jul-2021
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 136 GEL per night in June 2021, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 243 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 81 GEL per night. The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in June 2021 was 496 GEL per night. In Guria, the average price was 739 GEL, followed by Tbilisi - 644 GEL, Kakheti - 470 GEL and Adjara – 457 GEL.
Issue 9: Foreign Direct Investments in Ukraine 2016-2020
25-Jun-2021
The COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent Great Lockdown have affected investment flows all over the globe, especially in emerging markets. According to UNCTAD, global Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows dropped by 35% in 2020, to $1 trillion, from $1.5 trillion in 2019. This is almost 20% below the 2009 levels after the global financial crisis. Moreover, the number of newly announced greenfield projects in developing countries declined by 42% in 2020 compared to 2019. To assess the impact of the crisis on the FDI flows in Ukraine, it is crucial to have a snapshot of the pre-crisis situation along with developments in 2020.
Issue 127: Remittance Inflows in Georgia during Covid-19 Crisis
22-Jun-2021
This bulletin focuses on remittance inflows into Georgia in 2020 and its development in 2021.
The social and economic stability of Georgia strongly relies on the money sent from emigrants to their families. Based on World Bank Data, in 2019, in terms of dependence on remittance inflows, Georgia ranked 21st in the world, with remittance inflows to GDP ratio. Moreover, the study conducted by the State Commission on Migration Issues revealed that in 2016 money sent by every second emigrant to their families accumulated half or 3/4 of family budget, and for the 15% of families remittance was the only source of income in Georgia.
The COVID-19 pandemic and imposed restrictions hindered economic activity in nearly every country, resulting in a negative effect on wages and employment for migrant workers and consequently, drying up of remittance inflows. In 2020 due to the emerged crises and uncertain situation, the World Bank projected shrinking remittance flows for low and middle-income countries by 7.2%3, while the IMF forecasted a 15%4 decline for Georgia. However, despite the crisis and pessimistic predictions in Georgia, the volume of remittance inflows in 2020 compared to 2019 has increased by 8.8% and reached the highest figure in the past decade - 1.9 BLN USD, amounting to 11.9%, expressed as a percentage to GDP.
Georgian Economic Climate (Q2, 2021)
03-Jun-2021
According to this survey of Georgian economists, the economic climate in the country in the second quarter of 2021 is better than the first quarter of the same year. Georgian economists’ assessment of the current situation has improved, compared to the previous quarter and corresponding quarter of 2020, but nevertheless remained negative. The economists’ predictions for Georgia’s economic situation for the next six months were also negative. Their expectations for this period improved though, compared to their predictions in the first quarter of 2021, and were considerably more optimistic than the forecasts they made at the same time last year.
Monthly Tourism Update (May, 2021)
31-May-2021
The number of international travelers increased by 141.6% in April 2021 compared to the same period of 2020, and declined by 86.8% compared to the same period in 2019. Meanwhile, the number of international visitors increased by 140.4% (2021/2020) and declined by 85.0% (2021/2019), and the number of international tourists increased by 182.2% (2021/2020) and declined by 78.2% (2021/2019);
The number of visitors to Georgia from Israel in April 2021 recovered to 70% of its April 2019 level, with its share in total visitors amounting to 12.2%;
Georgia’s four neighboring countries accounted for 71% of total visitors in 2019. None of these countries had vaccinated more than 20% of their population as of May 23, 2021;
Some countries that stand out for their high vaccination rates among Georgia's key source markets include Israel (63% of the population), United Arab Emirates (61%), the United Kingdom (56%), Hungary (52%), the United States (49%), and Finland (41%). Most EU countries have a rate of around 30-40%;
In April 2021, the Hotel Price Index decreased by 2.3% compared to the corresponding month of 2019, mainly driven by a price decline of 27.4% in Adjara.
Hotel Price Index (May, 2021)
31-May-2021
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 132 GEL per night in May 2021, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 246 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 82 GEL per night. The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in May 2021 was 402 GEL per night. In Guria, the average price was 600 GEL, followed by Tbilisi - 509 GEL, Kakheti - 432 GEL and Adjara – 391 GEL.
Professional Development of Civil Servants in Georgia – Supporting the Shift to Online Learning
24-May-2021
The research objectives are to examine the challenges that exist in the civil servants’ professional development system, in general, explore barriers specifically associated with the shift to online learning, assess the readiness of civil servants for online training, and develop recommendations to increase the effectiveness of remote teaching.The research methodology is based on a mixed-method design and combines qualitative and quantitative approaches: analysis of the existing documents, interviews with key informants, focus group discussions, and a computer-assisted telephone survey that is representative for professional civil servants working in the councils and town halls across the country. In order to provide in-depth analysis of the issue, the research draws on the perspectives of multiple stakeholders, including civil servants as well as representatives of the Civil Service Bureau, international organizations, and training centers.
Issue 8: Ukraine in International Rankings
18-May-2021
International rankings and indicators help us to understand and assess how countries are performing in different areas. In this bulletin, Ukraine’s positions in international rankings and the dynamics therein will be reviewed based on recent data. The positions will also be compared with other Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Moldova, Georgia, and Belarus).
Monthly Tourism Update (April, 2021)
06-May-2021
The number of international travelers increased by 141.6% in April 2021 compared to the same period of 2020, and declined by 86.8% compared to the same period in 2019. Meanwhile, the number of international visitors increased by 140.4% (2021/2020) and declined by 85.0% (2021/2019), and the number of international tourists increased by 182.2% (2021/2020) and declined by 78.2% (2021/2019);
Visitors from the United States and Israel stand out as high-spenders and long-stayers in Georgia, while visitors from Turkey, the Gulf States, Iran, and Armenia have been categorized as high-spenders but short-stayers. Visitors from Russia and Azerbaijan fall into the low-spend, short-stay category;
Israel and the Gulf States accounted for the highest estimated revenue loss in 2020 due to the COVID-19, apart from immediate neighbors. Now, Israel and the United Arab Emirates have one of the highest percentage of vaccinated population, so visitors from the two countries could be worth targeting;
For 2021, it is recommended to channel marketing campaigns toward high-spenders and short-stayers, along with high-spenders and long-stayers;
Due to the abnormal impact of the pandemic on 2020 prices, we use 2019 as the comparison year for the Hotel Price Index for the rest of 2021.
Hotel Price Index (April, 2021)
06-May-2021
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 133 GEL per night in April 2021, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 225 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 77 GEL per night. The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in April 2021 was 380 GEL per night. In Guria, the average price was 606 GEL, followed by Tbilisi - 512 GEL, Kakheti - 425 GEL and Adjara – 329 GEL.
Issue 7: Remittance Inflows into Ukraine
29-Apr-2021
In this bulletin, a snapshot of remittance inflows into Ukraine pre-COVID is discussed, followed by its developments in 2020.
According to the World Bank, global remittances will decline by 14% by the end of 20212, compared to the pre-pandemic level of 2019;
In 2020, remittance inflows into Ukraine declined just by 0.3%, compared to 2019;
Remittance inflows in Ukraine have been growing at an annual average of 8.2% over the past decade;
The contribution of remittances to GDP in Ukraine amounted to 7.7% in 2020;
The top senders of remittances to Ukraine in 2020 were Poland (26%), the United States (10%), and the United Kingdom (9%). In 2016-2019, the top senders were Poland (30%), Russia (12%), and the United States (8%);
Remittances from Russia declined the most in 2020 (-20%), compared to 2019, while the United Kingdom recorded the strongest growth (69%) over the same period.
Microfinance Sector in Georgia (2017-2020)
23-Apr-2021
PMC Research has launched a new periodic publication entitled Sector Snapshots. Each issue focuses on a specific sector of the Georgian economy, observing developments with respect to key indicators of the given sector as a whole, the sector’s dynamics, its role in the overall economy, and, finally, financial indicators of companies within that sector.
The publication will produce valuable insights for businesses engaged in the covered sectors, as it lays out the trajectory of development for each sector and its possible financial bottlenecks, thereby contributing to more informed and efficient decision-making.
In the first issue of our new publication, we focus on Georgia’s microfinance sector.
In 2017-2019 new regulations on microfinance institutions (MFIs) entered into force, which significantly altered the landscape of the industry;
Between Q1 2017 and Q4 2020, the number of MFIs and employees in the sector fell, with the former dropping to 40 and the latter to 4145 by Q4 2020 (52% and 16% decrease, respectively)
In Q4 2020, MFIs in Georgia held 1.48 bln GEL of assets and 0.98 bln GEL of liabilities. In this period, the consolidated assets and liabilities of MFIs increased, compared to Q4 2019 with a growth of 7% and 9%, respectively. Compared to Q1 of 2017, figures increased by 6% and decreased by 1%, respectively;
In 2020, gross income (revenue) of MFIs decreased, compared to 2019, and dropped by 10% to 332.6 mln GEL, while net income increased to 44.8 mln GEL. Moreover, the net income margin increased by 14 percentage points and reached 14%;
By the end of 2020, portfolio of loans issued by MFIs amounted to 1.18 bln GEL, while number of loans in portfolio amounted to 0.66 mln loans, which represented 8% increase and 16% decrease, respectively, compared to the figures by the end of 2018.
Monthly Tourism Update (March, 2021)
15-Apr-2021
The number of international travelers declined by 75.3% in March compared to the same period of 2020, and by 90.7% compared to the same period in 2019. Meanwhile, the number of international visitors fell by 73.4% (2021/2020) and by 89.0% (2021/2019), and the number of international tourists fell by 64.4% (2021/2020) and by 84.4% (2021/2019);
Saudi Arabia, the United States, Qatar, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the United Kingdom rank as the top five countries of origin when it comes to highest average expenditure per visit;
Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, and Armenia rank as the top five countries of origin when it comes to average expenditure per day;
Targeting visitors from Turkey, via both air and land routes, could be an effective marketing strategy, at least in the short term;
Due to the abnormal impact of the pandemic on 2020 prices, we use 2019 as the comparison year for the Hotel Price Index for the rest of 2021.
Hotel Price Index (March, 2021)
15-Apr-2021
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 124 GEL per night in March 2021, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 219 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 80 GEL per night. The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in March 2021 was 332 GEL per night. In Guria, the average price was 587 GEL, followed by Tbilisi - 436 GEL, Adjara - 295 GEL and Kakheti – 293 GEL.
Fruit and Vegetable Processing Cluster, Hazelnut Processing Diagnostic Study in Guria Region
14-Apr-2021
PMC Research conducted a diagnostic study of fruit and vegetable processing cluster and hazelnut processing in Guria region of Georgia, and developed a cluster map, and elaborated short-term objectives as well as a long-term vision for the development of this cluster.
The study is part of the “EU Innovative Action for Private Sector Competitiveness in Georgia (EU IPSC)” program, which is a joint initiative of the European Union and the following four UN agencies: the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP); the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO); the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO); and the International Organization for Migration (IOM).
Poultry Cluster Diagnostic Study in Kvemo Kartli Region
14-Apr-2021
PMC Research conducted a poultry cluster diagnostic study in Kvemo Kartli region of Georgia, and developed a cluster map, and elaborated short-term objectives as well as a long-term vision for the development of this cluster.
The study is part of the “EU Innovative Action for Private Sector Competitiveness in Georgia (EU IPSC)” program, which is a joint initiative of the European Union and the following four UN agencies: the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP); the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO); the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO); and the International Organization for Migration (IOM).
Marine Fishing Cluster Diagnostic Study in Samegrelo-Zemo Svaneti Region
05-Apr-2021
PMC Research described both the history and the current reality for the marine fishing cluster in Samegrelo-Zemo Svaneti region of Georgia, analyzed business operations within it, developed a cluster map, and elaborated short-term objectives as well as a long-term vision for the development of this cluster.
The study is part of the “EU Innovative Action for Private Sector Competitiveness in Georgia (EU IPSC)” program, which is a joint initiative of the European Union and the following four UN agencies: the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP); the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO); the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO); and the International Organization for Migration (IOM).
Hazelnut Processing Cluster Diagnostic Study in Samegrelo-Zemo Svaneti Region
02-Apr-2021
PMC Research described both the history and the current reality for the hazelnut processing cluster in Samegrelo-Zemo Svaneti region of Georgia, analyzed business operations within it, developed a cluster map, and elaborated short-term objectives as well as a long-term vision for the development of this cluster.
The study is part of the “EU Innovative Action for Private Sector Competitiveness in Georgia (EU IPSC)” program, which is a joint initiative of the European Union and the following four UN agencies: the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP); the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO); the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO); and the International Organization for Migration (IOM).
Cybercrime in Georgia: Current Challenges and Possible Developments
30-Mar-2021
The goal of this research is twofold. Primarily, it provides an assessment of the cybercrime situation in Georgia and projection of possible developments, as well as envisages policy recommendations for responsible public authorities. The secondary, but not less important goal is to facilitate awareness-raising through developing analytical information regarding problems and ways of their solutions. Georgian citizens are end victims who suffer from any national security threats including cybersecurity incidents and cybercrimes. Informing the public and raising awareness gain utmost importance, especially in conditions of hybrid threats. Social resilience could not be ensured without a wider engagement of informed and socially active citizenry.
Key Findings
Cybercrime is still an emerging phenomenon in Georgia, its damaging potential is not fully exposed and the threat is not perceived properly either by the government or the society;
Highly likely cybercrime remains underreported in Georgia as in many other countries of our region;
The MIA is focused on pure cybercrimes and does not calculate cyber-enabled crimes under cybercrime statistics that leaves room for ambiguity;
From the perspective of criminal justice, policy cybercrime still does not expose serious challenge to society as its share in general criminal statistics is not significant;
In the context of national security, cybercrime is more dangerous than other crimes as it represents an instrument of transformation of external threats into serious problems of internal security;
Georgian Police handle cybercrime generally in a reactive manner, with more focus on response - investigation and pursuit, lacking a comprehensive preventive approach;
LEA has certain problems in investigation and digital forensic, especially, in the regions;
Lack of coordinated government policy, mature engagement of the private sector and low public awareness in the light of digitalization of social life, increasing internet and ICT access are main factors affecting cybercrime statistics negatively;
Transnational criminal activities expose little danger to Georgia cybersecurity nowadays, but it`s predictable that GOCGs being an important part of transnational organized criminality, will increase their illegal activities in the digital space;
Lack of sustainable financial support to develop key cybersecurity services and programs is observed;
As main determinants affecting of raising cybercrime in Georgia are mostly generated through complex internal socio-economic and technological developments and external geopolitical processes and the GOG has limited capacity to influence significantly on most of those factors in a short-term perspective, it can be implied that in the nearest 5 years’ period, the trend of raising cybercrime rates in Georgia will be maintained. Highly likely cybercrime would be increased approximately by 25-30% per year in comparison to 2020 rates and gradually, it will easily overcome 5% share of total criminal cases registered by the police in 2022.
Recommendations
Recommendation #1. More preventive, proactive and protective policy:
Set up a comprehensive strategic agenda for cybercrime preventive measures. Georgia needs to develop not only reactive but also proactive measures for combating cybercrime;
Change the approach of calculating cybercrime statistics to consider numbers of cyber-enabled crimes in total number of cybercrimes;
Develop joint interagency task force from key government stakeholder institutions, equipped with strategic, operational and tactical tools, to unify efforts and undertake comprehensive and adequate measures for deterring external threats or mitigating the risks;
Elaborate long-term strategy and action plan for combatting cybercrime, which will include capacity building, large-scale public awareness projects jointly organized by relevant government agencies (participation of the institutions responsible for implementing educational and youth policy is highly recommended);
Draft and adopt legislative framework empowering the police for utilization ethical hacking and other proactive measures in cyberspace;
Increase funding of cybersecurity dimension.
Recommendation #2. Develop workforce and institutional capacity:
Increase human and technological capacity of cybercrime investigators, especially at the regional level. Regular training programs with no gaps, as new sophisticated attacks require qualified people to deal with;
Develop national training infrastructure for LEAs and security sector agencies to fill the gaps of human resources and facilitate professionalization of their personnel in cybersecurity, cybercrime investigation techniques and digital evidence;
Increase efforts for participation in international exercises and trainings to increase international LEA cooperation with a special focus on combatting cybercrimes;
Work more actively with LEAs of partner countries, international and regional law enforcement organizations in joint working groups and other platforms to detect activities of GOCGs in cyber sphere and be informed about possible threats;
Create specialized cybercrime police units in every region of Georgia, equip them with special crime detection software and technical solutions that will increase early warning opportunities and increase other preventive technics;
Equip and train enough police personnel properly for conducting tailored proactive policing measures countrywide.
Recommendation #3. Develop cyber culture:
Take active measures for public education and awareness, the empowerment of Georgian information society; reduce the success rate of many forms of cybercrime by educating individuals and organizations in recognizing criminal activity before they fall victim to it;
Through various institutional frameworks achieve engagement of multiply government agencies having a large set of beneficiaries and active partnership with the private sector in the awareness-raising process to increase the outreach;
Implement tailored educational campaigns for professional civil servants in cybersecurity, cyber hygiene and misinformation campaigns;
Implement tailored and large-scale awareness-raising campaigns for the most vulnerable social groups;
Share information about threats, best practices, specialized capabilities among stakeholders to build trust and demonstrate value for them;
Raise awareness among decision-makers and senior management of LEAs to determine strategic priorities regarding cybercrime and electronic evidence.
Recommendation #4. Co-share resources between CERT and MIA:
Temporary secondment - assignment, transfer of LEA professional in CERT in order to get a hand-on experience of CERT incident collection and reporting, classification approaches, together define procedural and organizational formalities. On the contrary, CERT representative can be shifted to cybercrime office in order to get more insight into procedural powers, investigation techniques and assist the process with technical cyber know-how. This advice is vastly promoted by ENISA, Council of Europe as a cooperative tool between cybercrime and cybersecurity authorities;
Adopt unified operational standards, develop the capacity of joint work; the experience of joint risk assessment teams of the MIA and the LEPL Revenue Service could be a useful example;
Key steps required for information exchange between CERT and the police: Define a common taxonomy related to incidents and events in cybersecurity; Define an exchange standard to enable the sharing of information based on the taxonomy
Create statistics based on the information exchanged.
Recommendation #5: Connect, communicate and collaborate:
Strengthen formal and informal cooperation frameworks to combat cybercrime in order to build an effective and sound governance system;
Elaborate and adopt legislative requirements for the exchange of information between public and private sectors;
Foster cooperation between the MIA and ISPs;
Develop a secure information sharing platform for the exchange of information on cyber-threats and incidents between cyber authorities;
Undertake measures (including legislative amendments) to increase informed and responsible engagement of the private sector in strengthening the country`s cyber resilience.
Recommendation #6: Develop Cybercrime Reporting Mechanism:
Establish a cybercrime reporting centre, hotline, providing a central point of contact for citizens and businesses;
Develop coordinated mechanisms within the public and the private sector allowing citizens to report cybercrime cases, including online fraud, cyberstalking, child abuse online, identify theft, privacy and security breaches, etc.;
Define common reporting methodology with written guidelines to broad stakeholder groups, including foreign counterparts;
Launch awareness programs and communication campaigns to promote the regular use of reporting mechanisms by a wider community;
Develop digital tools for cybercrime reporting.
Issue 6: Supporting Businesses During the Pandemic: National and Municipal Responses
29-Mar-2021
To address the challenges posed by the pandemic, various government measures have been taken at both national and local levels. In order to withstand the economic recession, almost all countries, including Ukraine, have introduced significant fiscal stimulus packages. Exclusively for the 2020 fiscal year, the Government of Ukraine created a stand-alone budgetary program under the Ministry of Finance to fight the pandemic, with an overall budget of UAH 80.9 billion (or 2% of Ukraine’s 2019 GDP).
Hotel Price Index (February, 2021)
16-Mar-2021
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 126 GEL per night in February 2021, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 180 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 75 GEL per night. The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in January 2021 was 345 GEL per night. In Guria, the average price was 464 GEL, followed by Samtskhe-Javakheti - 433 GEL, Tbilisi - 428 GEL and Kakheti – 329 GEL.
Monthly Tourism Update (February, 2021)
16-Mar-2021
The number of international travelers declined by 91% in February compared to the same period of both, 2020 and 2019, while the number of international visitors fell by 90% and the number of international tourists fell by 86%;
From March 2020 to February 19, 2021, 220 different hotels, and 11 744 hotel rooms, were utilized under the quarantine zones program. A total of 148 904 people stayed in these quarantine hotels over the covered period, and 3 644 people maintained their jobs in these hotels due to the program;
From March 2020 up to and including January 2021, a total of GEL 66.6 mln was spent under the program, averaging GEL 6.1 mln per month. On average, 94 hotels and 6340 hotel rooms were utilized per month, and 32 GEL was spent per hotel room per day.
Georgia - Fit for the Age of Artificial Intelligence?
16-Mar-2021
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is increasingly becoming a part of our everyday lives. The use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) was observed in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict; AI model was developed to diagnose COVID-19. The leader of the Georgian Dream criticized opponents for using deepfake programs to misinform the electorate during the 2020 parliamentary election campaign. AI offers tremendous benefits for our societies, in terms of public governance, business development and healthcare, but it also raises important economic, legal and ethical questions.
Issue 126: GDP and Employment in Georgia: Forecasts for 2021
04-Mar-2021
In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic heavily disrupted the world, causing both a global health emergency and a global economic crisis. While almost every country and every sector have been affected, economies reliant on the service sector, and especially the tourism industry, such as Georgia, have suffered notably. Indeed, measures taken to contain the spread of the virus have had an especially negative impact on the economy. Preliminary estimates suggest a decline in Georgia’s real GDP in 2020 of 6.1%, the sharpest drop since 1994.In this issue, we provide forecasts for the performance of the Georgian economy for 2021, namely regarding its real GDP growth rate, sector-specific growth rates, and employment.
Georgian Economic Climate (Q1, 2021)
23-Feb-2021
According to a survey of Georgian economists, the economic climate in the country for the first quarter of 2021 has been and will continue to be worse than the last quarter of 2020. Their assessment of the current situation was also significantly worse than the corresponding quarter of the previous year. The economists’ predictions for Georgia’s economic situation for the next six months were also negative. Specifically, their expectations for this period remain similarly bleak to those stated in the final quarter of 2020, and were considerably more pessimistic than the forecasts they made at the same time last year.
Monthly Tourism Update (January, 2021)
16-Feb-2021
The number of international travelers declined by 94.5% in January compared to the same period of 2020, while the number of international visitors fell by 93.6% and the number of international tourists fell by 91.9%;
In January 2021, the year over year Hotel Price Index decreased by 33.8% in Adjara and by 28.5% in Samtskhe-Javakheti;
The number of ski-lift users in Georgia grew significantly, by an annual average rate of 21%, from the 2014-2015 season up to and including the 2018-2019 season. However, compared to the 2018-19 season, the number of ski-lift users dropped by 20% during the 2019-2020 season, due to the looming COVID-19 pandemic which effectively brought the season to an early finish. Thereafter, the 2020-2021 season has been cancelled outright due to the ongoing epidemiological crisis;
Sales per skiing day demonstrated significant growth from the 2014-2015 winter season up to and including the 2018-2019 winter season, growing by 33% annually on average in this period. It even registered modest growth (4%) in the 2019-2020 season.
Hotel Price Index (January, 2021)
16-Feb-2021
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 118 GEL per night in January 2021, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 188 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 72 GEL per night.
Issue 5: Labor Market in Ukraine
09-Feb-2021
In this issue, we overview trends in Ukraine’s labor market indicators through the past decade and compare the dynamics of unemployment rates of Eastern Partnership countries over the same period. In addition, we analyze the effects of COVID-19 on the key labor market indicators, as well as on average wages and number of vacancies posted in 2020.
Hotel Price Index (December, 2020)
29-Jan-2021
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 123 GEL per night in December 2020, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 197 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 70 GEL per night.
Monthly Tourism Update (December, 2020)
29-Jan-2021
Tourism across the world in 2020 was decimated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Since March 2020, the industry has been all but sidelined by various lockdowns including severe restrictions to international travel. To counter these difficulties, businesses in tourism-related industries were provided different support measures throughout 2020, and many of these have been extended into 2021;
The number of international travelers declined by 92.4% in December compared to the same period of 2019, while the number of international visitors fell by 90.8% and the number of international tourists fell by 86.3%;
The price changes in Adjara and Guria are the most representative of tourism’s decline. In December 2020, the year over year Hotel Price Index decreased by 41% in Guria, by 39% in Adjara and by 31.3% in Samtskhe-Javakheti.
Issue 125: Georgia in International Rankings
25-Jan-2021
International rankings and indicators help us to understand and assess how countries are performing in different areas. In this bulletin, Georgia’s positions in international rankings and their dynamics are reviewed based on recent data, and these are also compared to other Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Moldova, Ukraine, and Belarus).
COVID-19 in the Black Sea Region - Part II
20-Jan-2021
The spread of COVID-19 has resulted in a global pandemic, followed by an abrupt economic crisis due to the necessary measures taken to reduce infection and death rates. In this bulletin, we focus on the countries of the Black Sea region, specifically their preparedness for an economic crisis and their actual economic performance during the pandemic, before presenting forecasts for 2021.
Issue 4: Ukraine’s External Trade (Q1-Q3, 2016-2020)
24-Dec-2020
In Q1-Q3 of 2020, total trade turnover in Ukraine amounted to 72.8 bln USD, which is a 6.9 bln (9%) decrease, compared to the corresponding period of 2019;
In Q1-Q3 of 2020, Ukrainian exports decreased by 6% compared to the corresponding period of 2019, while Ukrainian imports dropped by 11%;
In Q1-Q3 of 2020, Ukraine’s trade deficit amounted to 2.98 bln USD, which is 2.6 bln USD (47%) decrease compared to the corresponding period of 2019;
In Q1-Q3 of 2020, the main export partners were China, Poland and Russia, with shares in total export volume of 13.8%, 6.7% and 5.8% respectively. The main import partners were China (15.3% of total imports), Germany (10.2%) and Russia (8.8%).
Monthly Tourism Update (November, 2020)
21-Dec-2020
The number of international travelers declined by 93.1% in November compared to the same period of 2019, while the number of international visitors fell by 91.6% and the number of international tourists fell by 88.3%;
The price changes in Adjara and Guria are the most representative of tourism’s decline. In November 2020, the year over year Hotel Price Index decreased by 45.8% in Guria and by 28.5% in Adjara. Hotel prices in other regions do not provide an accurate guidance of the situation in accommodation market due to the COVID-19 pandemic;
The number of visits by domestic visitors in the third quarter of 2020 (Q3 of 2020) has declined by 5.6%, compared to the same period of 2019;
The number of visits with the purpose of visiting friends or relatives has declined the most in Q3 of 2020, compared to the corresponding figure in 2019, having declined by 19.8%. Whereas, the number of visits with the purpose of visiting another house (cottage, etc.) has increased by 45.4% in Q3 of 2020, compared to Q3 of 2019. Perhaps, the main reason for these changes in the structure of the visit purpose is existing fears of traveling caused by the ongoing pandemic.
Hotel Price Index (November, 2020)
21-Dec-2020
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 113 GEL per night in November 2020, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 176 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 67 GEL per night.
Issue 3: COVID-19 in Eastern Europe and Central Asia: Case Studies of Ukraine, Georgia and Albania
18-Dec-2020
The COVID-19 pandemic, and the ensuing economic shock, has prompted governments all around the globe to act swiftly and decisively to mitigate the health and economic impacts of the crisis. Each country has responded in its way, and it is useful to look at these different responses to identify good practices. In this issue, we will be looking at the case studies of Ukraine, Georgia, and Albania, including an analysis of the fiscal measures these countries have taken and an overview of the economic forecasts for 2020 and 2021.
Monthly Tourism Update (October, 2020)
27-Nov-2020
The number of international visitors declined by 92.9% in October compared to the same period of 2019, and the number of international tourists fell by 90%. Georgia experienced a fall of at least 90% in the number of foreign arrivals every month since April 2020, compared to the corresponding period of 2019;
The price changes in Adjara and Guria are the most representative of tourism’s decline. In October 2020, the year over year Hotel Price Index decreased by 51% in Guria and by 27.2% in Adjara;
The number of international visits to Georgia grew significantly over the period of 2015 to 2019, and this growth was mostly attributable to an increase in the number of visits for holiday, leisure and recreation purposes. However, due to safety concerns arising from the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of visits in this category has been declining significantly, and this trend is likely to continue for the foreseeable future;
The number of business or professional visits, despite contributing only a modest share of the total visits, also registered significant growth, as it grew by an average of 11% year-on-year from 2015 to 2019.
Hotel Price Index (October, 2020)
27-Nov-2020
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 120 GEL per night in October 2020, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 211 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 67 GEL per night. The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in October 2020 was 387 GEL per night. In Tbilisi, the average price was 454 GEL, followed by Guria - 432 GEL, Samtskhe-Javakheti - 424 GEL and Kakheti – 395 GEL.
Issue 2: Economic Growth Forecasts in Ukraine: 2020 and 2021
25-Nov-2020
“The Great Lockdown”, referring to the period in which COVID-19 containment measures were put in place worldwide, has had a significant toll on the global economy. In the specific case of Ukraine, even though the country entered the crisis in better macroeconomic condition than in previous global crisis in 2008, its economy is still expected to be hit hard. In this issue, we provide an overview of the impacts of the ongoing pandemic on the Ukrainian economy that are already visible and try to supply an economic forecast for the country for the remainder of 2020 and for 2021, looking at the performance of each economic sector in the process.
Georgian Economic Climate (Q4, 2020)
18-Nov-2020
In the fourth quarter of 2020, Georgian economic climate did not change significantly, compared to the previous quarter. In this period, Georgian economists assessed Georgia’s present economic situation negatively. The assessment of present economic situation in this quarter slightly improved compared to the third quarter of 2020, but worsened compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. In the fourth quarter of 2020, Georgia’s economic situation for the next six months was also assessed negatively by Georgian economists. Furthermore, expectations for the next six months deteriorated slightly compared to both the third quarter of 2020 and the fourth quarter of 2020.
Creative Industries - Anti-Piracy in Georgia
30-Oct-2020
This paper concentrates on the production and post-production (of audiovisual content) value chains within the creative industries sector and aims to facilitate dialogue between private and public sectors on the most critical policy/regulatory challenges. The paper is developed by PMCG under the USAID Economic Security Program.
Issue 124: Overview of COVID-19 in Eastern Europe and Central Asia Including Case Studies of Georgia, Moldova and Serbia
22-Oct-2020
The COVID-19 pandemic, and the ensuing economic shock, has prompted governments all around the globe to act swiftly and decisively to mitigate the health and economic impacts of the crisis. Each country has responded in its own way, and it is useful to look at these different responses to identify good practices. In this issue, we look broadly at countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, and present three case studies of Georgia, Moldova, and Serbia respectively, including an analysis of the fiscal measures these countries have taken and an overview of the impacts of the pandemic.
Monthly Tourism Update (September, 2020)
21-Oct-2020
The number of international travelers declined by 94.2% in September compared to the same period of 2019, while the number of inter- national visitors fell by 93.6% and the number of international tourists fell by 92.2%. Georgia experienced a fall of more than 90% in the number of foreign arrivals every month since April, compared to the corresponding period of 2019;
In the first three quarters of 2020, revenues from international travel amounted to US$499 mln, which is 81% lower than for the same period of 2019;
The price changes in Adjara, Guria, and Samtskhe-Javakheti are the most representative of tourism’s decline. In September 2020, the year over year Hotel Price Index decreased by 39.2% in Guria, 33.4% in Adjara, and 24.3% in Samtskhe-Javakheti;
Looking at countries that have reopened tourism quickly with no restrictions, some have managed to recover a sizable portion of their arrivals, such as Albania, while others, like North Macedonia and Serbia, have not been so successful. Indeed, the decrease in the number of arrivals to the latter two countries has been comparable to that in Georgia, which has maintained significant travel restrictions.
Hotel Price Index (September, 2020)
21-Oct-2020
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 124 GEL per night in September 2020, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 221 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 70 GEL per night. The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in September 2020 was 335 GEL per night. In Samtskhe-Javakheti, the average price was 440 GEL, followed by Guria - 433 GEL, Tbilisi - 430 GEL and Kakheti – 345 GEL.
Issue 1: Ukrainian Economy - Overview, 2010-2019
09-Oct-2020
In the very first edition of PMC Research Center Ukraine’s Economic Outlook and Indicators, we present an overview and analysis of the dynamics of Ukraine’s main economic indicators over the last decade, such as GDP, inflation, exchange rates, foreign trade, FDI, and remittances.
Issue 123: Employment and Income Dynamics in Georgia
05-Oct-2020
In August 2020, the number of employees receiving salaries recovered almost fully and stood at only 1% less than the corresponding month of last year;
During the period of January-August 2020, the month of May saw the largest drop in the number of employees receiving salaries (a dip of 9% or 74 951), compared to the corresponding period of 2019;
The month of April experienced the biggest decline in the number of employees for four out of the five higher-income categories, with the highest decline (23%) recorded in the number of people earning more than GEL 4800 per month;
The total average monthly earnings of employees in Q2 of 2020 amounted to GEL 1150.1, which represents a 3% decrease compared to Q2 of 2019;
According to the data obtained from HR.ge and Jobs.ge, the drop in demand for labor started in March and reached its peak in April, when HR.ge and Jobs.ge experienced an 87% and 78% year over year (YoY) decline in new vacancies posted, respectively. The YoY growth rates started recovering towards the baseline in May, but then registered a significant decline in August.
Value Chain Analysis of Rural Tourism in Mtskheta-Mtianeti Region
05-Oct-2020
The study examines the rural tourism value chain in the Tianeti municipality and Lower Pshavi area (Dusheti municipality) of Mtskheta-Mtianeti region in order to introduce more economic opportunities in these deprived rural areas of Georgia. This study was conducted by PMC Research in collaboration with Biological Farming Association ELKANA, as part of an Austrian Development Cooperation project.
COVID-19 in the Black Sea Region - Part I
22-Sep-2020
The spread of novel coronavirus COVID-19 has resulted in global pandemics, which was followed by an abrupt economic crisis, as economies stood still in order to overcome the threat to people’s lives. In this bulletin, we overview the readiness to the healthcare and economic crisis, the evolution of the pandemic and characteristics of the lockdown for the six countries in the Black Sea Region.
Reviewing Migration and Development: The Role of Local Authorities in Central Asia
22-Sep-2020
The paper reviews developmental implications of labour migration from Central Asia, analyses policy gaps in development-oriented migration management and offers recommendations to facilitate impactful engagement of local authorities in migration governance.
This paper is written by Dr. Giorgi Khishtovani, Director at PMC Research, with contribution from Maya Komakhidze, researcher at PMC Research.
Issue 122: Banking Sector in Georgia (2017-2020)
17-Sep-2020
By the end of the second quarter of 2020, loans and deposits, expressed as a percentage of GDP, increased by 3.6 and 4.9 percentage points, respectively, compared to the beginning of the year;
By the end of the second quarter of 2020, bank assets, expressed as a percentage of GDP, increased to 98.4%;
By the end of July of 2020, the volume of loans was increased by 19%, compared to July of 2019;
The average interest rates on loans in January-July of 2020 denominated in national currencies were 0.9 percentage points higher than in January-July of 2019, while the average interest rates on loans denominated in foreign currencies were 0.8 percentage points less;
By the end of July of 2020, the volume of deposits in Georgia was increased by 21%, compared to July of 2019;
The average interest rates on deposits in January-July of 2020 denominated in national currencies were 1.2 percentage points higher than in January-July of 2019, while the average interest rates on deposits denominated in foreign currencies were 0.4 percentage points less;
In January-July of 2020 trade had the highest share of total loans with 29.5%;
In January-July of 2020, share of construction in total loans increased by 3.6 percentage points, while share of financial intermediation decreased by 8.2 percentage points, compared to the corresponding period of 2019;
According to the World Bank, Georgia’s ratio of non-performing loans to total loans decreased in 2019, compared to 2018, by 0.8 percentage points and dropped to 1.9%;
By the end of July of 2020 the rates of dollarization on loans and deposits were increased by 0.3 and 8 percentage points, compared to the corresponding period of 2019. The rates rose to 56.9% and 61.3%, respectively.
Monthly Tourism Update (August, 2020)
11-Sep-2020
The number of international travelers declined by 96.4% in August compared to the same period of 2019, while the number of international visitors fell by 96% and the number of international tourists fell by 95.4%;
In the first 8 months of 2020, revenues from travel amounted to $483 mln, which is 78% lower than the same period in 2019;
In Q2 2020, compared to Q2 2019, turnover of accommodations declined by 66%, and turnover of food facilities declined by 37%;
In August 2020, compared to August 2019, yearly Hotel Price Index decreased by 32.1% in Guria and 21.7% in Adjara;
In August 2020, compared to August 2019, the average price of guesthouses in Guria decreased by 58%, while the average price of 3-star hotels decreased by 35%;
In August 2020, compared to August 2019, the average price of 4-star hotels decreased by 38%, while the average price of 5-star hotels decreased by 25%. The average prices of guesthouses and 3-star hotels registered a more modest decline.
Hotel Price Index (August, 2020)
11-Sep-2020
In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 128 GEL per night in August 2020. While the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 229 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 74 GEL per night. The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in August 2020 was 367 GEL per night. In Guria, the average price was 776 GEL, followed by Tbilisi - 426 GEL, Kakheti - 360 GEL and Adjara – 346 GEL.
Tourism Sector in Georgia
11-Sep-2020
The aim of this document is to identify the key economic policy/regulatory challenges in Georgia’s tourism value chain and to facilitate dialogue between private and public sectors including a wide spectrum of civil society and political representatives. The paper is developed by PMCG under the USAID Economic Security Program.
Monthly Tourism Update (July, 2020)
20-Aug-2020
The number of international travelers declined by 95.6% in July compared to the same period of 2019, while the number of international visitors fell by 94.8% and the number of international tourists fell by 93.5%;
In July 2020, compared to July 2019, the average prices of 5-star hotels decreased by 23%, which is the highest decline among the categories of the hotels;
In July 2020, the hotel prices have decreased in 8 regions (out of 11), compared to July 2019. The most hit regions are Guria (-38.1%), Adjara (-26.4%) and Samtskhe-Javakheti (-23.5%);
Due to distorted price data, the declines in hotel prices illustrated by our analysis are underestimated. Moreover, the analysis in July can be deemed conclusive just for Guria, Adjara and Samtskhe-Javakheti.
